石油沥青日报：台风天气抑制需求释放，沥青市场情绪偏弱-20250923

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the strategy for the asphalt market is "oscillating weakly" [2]. 2) Core View - The asphalt market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with local supply growth outpacing demand. The market sentiment is weak due to factors such as typhoon weather suppressing demand and limited production growth due to constraints on small - and medium - sized refineries. The asphalt futures market shows a downward trend, and the spot prices vary by region. Overall, the asphalt fundamentals are average, and the market is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend [1]. 3) Summary by Content Market Analysis - Futures Market: On September 22, the closing price of the main BU2511 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3401 yuan/ton, down 0.7% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 236,341 lots, an increase of 4,241 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 167,401 lots, a decrease of 12,441 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - Spot Market: The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3756 - 4086 yuan/ton; Shandong 3480 - 3770 yuan/ton; South China 3470 - 3540 yuan/ton; East China 3550 - 3650 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: With the decline in oil prices, refinery profits have marginally recovered, and the asphalt plant operating rate and production have increased. However, due to factors such as limited crude oil quotas and a decline in the consumption tax deduction ratio for small - and medium - sized refineries, the overall production growth of asphalt is limited. In terms of demand, since September, affected by funds and weather, the improvement in terminal consumption has been limited, and the peak - season characteristics are not obvious. There are regional differences, with the rush - construction demand in the northern region providing some support, while the demand in the southern region is weaker, and the typhoon weather this week has created new obstacles [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The strategy for unilateral trading is "oscillating weakly" [2]. - Other Strategies: There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Graphs - The report includes various graphs related to asphalt, such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of futures, weekly production of domestic asphalt and production in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social inventories) [3].