丙烯日报：装置重启而需求跟进不足，丙烯走势偏弱-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of maintenance, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The supply - demand support for propylene has weakened, and the weak trend of oil prices at the cost end has led to a weak operation of propylene. The supply pressure is still relatively large due to the restart of upstream devices and new production capacity. The demand is mainly driven by short - term pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream factories, but it is still restricted by cost pressure. The cost - end support has also weakened [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It involves figures on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][25] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It includes figures on the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][43][46] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]