黑色建材日报：市场情绪趋稳，钢价震荡偏弱-20250923

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1][2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [5][6][7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating provided, short - term oscillating, long - term supply is in a loose pattern [8] 2. Core Views - Steel: There is a game between weak reality and strong policy expectations, along with the Fed's interest rate cut driving risk - asset preference, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices. Short - term downstream pre - holiday restocking boosts demand slightly, but high inventories continue to suppress prices, and industrial contradictions are accumulating [1]. - Iron Ore: This week, the arrival of iron ore decreased slightly month - on - month. Iron ore demand remains high due to high hot - metal production, and inventory is at a medium level. Attention should be paid to the impact of floating cargo volume on arrivals and the pre - holiday restocking rhythm of steel mills [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: For coke, after the second round of price cuts and the increase in coking coal cost, coking profits have shrunk significantly, and some coke enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases. Although consumption is resilient, coke inventories continue to accumulate. For coking coal, coal mine production is gradually resuming, market sentiment is positive, and demand is considerable. The relatively strong thermal coal price supports coking coal prices, which generally oscillate [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: Pre - holiday demand from chemical and civil sectors increases, and large - group purchase prices rise, driving up coal prices in the production areas. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3185 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3380 yuan/ton. Today, steel spot trading was average, with prices rising slightly in most regions. Speculative demand was good, and overall trading volume remained relatively high. Recently, steel mill production has decreased, demand has improved, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. Yesterday, the total national building materials trading volume was 114,707 tons [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating weakly; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price weakened slightly. The main 2601 contract closed at 808.5 yuan/ton, with a 0.37% increase. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port were basically stable. Traders were not very active in quoting, and steel mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly this period, with a total of 33.25 million tons, including a slight decline in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.12 million tons. Yesterday, the total trading volume of iron ore at major ports was 1.082 million tons, a 26.11% increase month - on - month; the trading volume of forward - spot iron ore was 1.21 million tons (9 transactions), a 28.4% decrease month - on - month (with a mine trading volume of 1.05 million tons) [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main coking coal and coke futures contracts oscillated. In the spot market, the port coke market was stable, and the domestic market sentiment was average. For coking coal, some coal mines that had stopped production due to safety reasons resumed production on the evening of September 19. The coal prices in the main production areas were strong, traders' demand was relatively active, and the auction prices increased [5][6]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, coal prices oscillated strongly. Pre - holiday demand from chemical and civil sectors increased, and large - group purchase prices rose, leading to increased demand from traders. Some coal mines had low inventories, and the number of coal - hauling trucks increased, resulting in continuous price increases. In the port market, sentiment was good, upstream quotes were firm, and the transaction price gradually increased. Some traders were reluctant to sell due to high shipping costs and tight resources, and the quotes of some high - quality coal varieties increased. Imported coal tender prices continued to rise, the decline of domestic coal prices narrowed, low - calorie coal prices rebounded, and the price gap between domestic and imported coal shrank [8]. - Strategy: No strategy provided [8].