GreatStar(SZ:002444) Donghai Securities·2025-09-23 05:13Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next six months [2][45]. Core Viewpoints - The company has established a diversified product matrix in the tool industry, enhancing its manufacturing capabilities through acquisitions and restructuring, and is positioned for global expansion [5][10]. - The tool industry is mature with stable long-term demand, driven by active housing markets and industrial production expansion, with a projected global market size of $67.3 billion by 2026 [17][20]. - The company is actively responding to trade environment changes by implementing an international strategy since 2018, establishing a global supply chain and production bases [28][29]. - Despite a complex market environment, the company has built core competitiveness through optimized capacity layout, product innovation, and brand channel development [45]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Situation - The company achieved a revenue of 7.027 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.87%, and a net profit of 1.273 billion yuan, up 6.63% [10][14]. - The revenue distribution in H1 2025 was 65% from the US, 25.66% from Europe, and 4.96% from other regions [10]. 2. Industry Overview - The tool industry is characterized by stable demand, with a projected CAGR of 4% from 2024 to 2026 [17][20]. - The market is expected to see growth in segments like smart electric tools, driven by technological advancements [17]. 3. Company Competitiveness - The company has established 23 production bases globally and is investing in new facilities in Vietnam and Thailand [28][29]. - It has a strong focus on innovation, with significant R&D investments leading to a diverse product line exceeding 30,000 SKUs [31][32]. 4. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 8.12 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a 4.08% increase year-on-year despite a slight revenue decline [35]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 19.06%, indicating a low debt level and financial flexibility [35]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 16.336 billion yuan, 18.747 billion yuan, and 21.714 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.622 billion yuan, 3.057 billion yuan, and 3.587 billion yuan [3][45]. - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.20 yuan, 2.56 yuan, and 3.00 yuan, respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio decreasing from 15.21 to 11.12 [3][45].