生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar: In the short - term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to stabilize weakly, while in the long - term, sugar prices are still under pressure in the supply - abundant cycle. It is recommended to operate with short - term quick in - and - out strategies or sell out - of - the - money call options [3]. - Pulp: The pulp price is expected to be supported in the short - term, but the upward driving force is not clear. It is necessary to verify the peak season performance of finished paper. It is advisable to try short - position allocation near the upper limit of the range [4][5]. - Double - offset Paper: The disk has certain support, but the upward driving force is not clear, and the upward height may be limited. Attention can be paid to month - to - month reverse arbitrage and medium - term long - pulp short - paper arbitrage, and short - position allocation can be attempted near the pressure level [6]. - Cotton: With new cotton about to be listed, the short - term futures price may be under pressure. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices [7]. Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Apple: The market divergence increases, and the futures price is expected to move within a range. It is recommended to maintain a range - trading idea [8]. - Jujube: Aggressive investors can short the 2601 contract at high prices, while conservative investors can hold the short - 01 long - 05 reverse arbitrage [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Recommended Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | Range - trading | The difference in the new - season fulfillment expectation and the game of the delivery value increase, and the short - term futures price returns to the range expectation | 7500 - 7600 | 8500 - 8600 | | Jujube 2601 | Short at high prices | The overall sentiment of commodities is strengthening, and in the third quarter, jujubes enter the production - forming period, which is prone to weather premium | 10500 - 11000 | 11500 - 12000 | | Sugar 2601 | Short - term operation | The rebound of raw sugar supports domestic sugar prices. After the sharp decline of Zhengzhou sugar recently, the bearish sentiment has been released, and it is expected to stabilize weakly in the short - term | 5420 - 5440 | 5540 - 5560 | | Pulp 2511 | Range - short | The valuation of softwood pulp is not high. Recently, there have been mill inspections overseas, which have a positive impact on prices in terms of sentiment, but the pulp's own fundamentals still suppress prices before the finished paper prices stabilize and rebound | 4900 - 4950 | 5150 - 5200 | | Double - offset Paper 2601 | Short - position allocation on rebound | The approaching peak season supports short - term prices, but when the supply elasticity is high, the upward height of prices relying solely on peak - season demand may be limited | 4100 - 4200 | 4400 - 4500 | | Cotton 2601 | Short at high prices | The Fed's interest - rate cut is fulfilled, new cotton is about to be listed, and the short - term futures price may be under pressure | 13400 - 13500 | 14300 - 14400 | [18] Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In July, China's fresh apple exports were about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was about 464,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.0%. As of September 17, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 163,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,900 tons. Different institutions have different forecasts for apple production [19]. - Spot Market Situation: The mainstream transaction price of apples in Shandong is stable. The supply of early - maturing varieties is increasing, and the prices vary greatly. The procurement enthusiasm of merchants in the northwest is okay, and the price of pre - harvest orders is high. The arrival of goods in the sales area is stable, and the mainstream transaction price remains stable [20][21]. Jujube Market The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9,321 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 78.32%. The market is in a state of seeking direction in dynamic balance [22]. Sugar Market In August 2025, China imported 115,500 tons of syrup and sugar pre - mixed powder in total, a year - on - year decrease of 155,800 tons. As of the week of September 16, the non - commercial net short position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased. The spot price of sugar has been significantly reduced [24]. Pulp Market The demand for pulp replenishment may increase when the peak season approaches, but the extent needs to be tracked. China's pulp imports have been decreasing, and the supply pressure has been relieved. Some suppliers have lowered the price of non - NBSK softwood pulp, while most suppliers intend to keep the price of imported NBSK unchanged. The price of South American bleached hardwood pulp has been partially increased [4][27]. Double - offset Paper Market The mainstream transaction prices in different regions vary, and the overall market is in a state of weak demand and high supply. Some production lines have resumed production, and the industry's operating rate has increased slightly [28][29]. Cotton Market As of September 15, the textile enterprises' in - stock industrial cotton inventory and available cotton inventory decreased. According to the CFTC report, the non - commercial net long position of ICE cotton futures and options increased [31]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 8291 | 18 | 0.22% | | Jujube 2601 | 10735 | 65 | 0.61% | | Sugar 2601 | 5452 | - 9 | - 0.16% | | Pulp 2511 | 5008 | - 10 | - 0.20% | | Cotton 2601 | 13610 | - 110 | - 0.80% | [33] Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.20 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5800 | - 30 | - 590 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5650 | 0 | - 500 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4500 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15224 | - 59 | 259 | [40] Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description in the content, only relevant charts are provided [50]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 164 | - 7 | 201 | Fluctuate repeatedly | Wait - and - see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 215 | 205 | - 130 | Range - bound | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 20 | 5 | 10 | Range - bound | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | - 5 | - 20 | 30 | Range - bound | Temporarily wait - and - see | [58] Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There is no specific text description in the content, only relevant charts are provided [66]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8323 | - 107 | 2411 | | Sugar | 10315 | - 49 | - 3137 | | Pulp | 244600 | - 41 | - 239416 | | Cotton | 4096 | - 136 | - 2715 | [87] Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description in the content, only relevant charts are provided [87].