新能源产业链月度策略：New Energy Industry Chain Daily Report-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is experiencing strong supply and demand, with the intensity of demand determining the height of the market. News and international macro factors are disturbing the market, and upstream and downstream enterprises should seize the opportunity for futures buying and selling hedging according to their risk management needs [5]. - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is limited, and the inventory remains at a high level. The high - inventory pressure still exists, and the weakening of the downstream polysilicon market may lead to negative impacts. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices [6]. - The previous rise of polysilicon was mainly supported by policy expectations, but the policies and production cuts have not been implemented. The supply - demand pattern has deteriorated due to the increasing supply pressure. The new energy consumption standard may improve the future supply - demand pattern, and the market is easily affected by news [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - Carbonate Lithium: The market is driven by news, with wide - range fluctuations. The upstream should seize the opportunity to sell and hedge when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to low - price purchases. The support level is 68000 - 70000, and the pressure level is 80000 - 82000 [15]. - Industrial Silicon: The weak reality restricts the upward height of the market. There is limited upward space, and short - selling at high prices is recommended. The support level is 8200 - 8300, and the pressure level is 9200 - 9300 [15]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations have not been fulfilled, and concerns about weak demand are increasing. The market is oscillating weakly, and short - selling at high prices is recommended. The support level is 48000 - 49000, and the pressure level is 53000 - 54000 [15]. - Arbitrage Recommendation: There are no good arbitrage opportunities recently [15]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 73420 | - 0.73% | 396645 | 271624 | - 9640 | 38909 | | Industrial Silicon | 8950 | - 3.82% | 586687 | 285490 | - 25607 | 49802 | | Polysilicon | 50990 | - 3.63% | 253135 | 123917 | 8068 | 7870 | [15] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium reached a record high of 20363 tons. All lithium extraction processes showed an increase in production. The total inventory decreased by 981 tons to 137531 tons, but still remained at a high level. The inventory of lithium salt enterprises continued to transfer downstream, and the downstream inventory reached a new high [5]. - Downstream Situation: The weekly apparent demand for lithium salts was 21344 tons, remaining at a recent high. The available days of full - caliber sample inventory were basically the same as last week [5]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the inventory remains at a high level. There are rumors of production cuts in the southwest region, but the authenticity needs to be verified [6]. - Downstream Situation: The downstream polysilicon market has shown weakness recently, and there is a possibility of negative impacts spreading upwards [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: The previous rise was based on policy expectations, but these policies and production cuts have not been implemented. The supply pressure has increased, and the supply - demand pattern has deteriorated [8]. - Downstream Situation: The market is affected by "anti - involution" sentiment, and the new energy consumption standard may improve the future supply - demand pattern. The market is easily influenced by rumors [9].