光大期货软商品日报-20250923

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.06% to 66.25 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.98% to 13,610 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 13,028 lots to 522,300 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 14,795 yuan per ton, down 75 yuan. Internationally, after the Fed's September meeting, the overall drive slowed and there are still differences in the future interest - rate cut path. The U.S. cotton is mainly in low - level oscillation. Domestically, with new cotton flooding the market, the supply pressure is high and the cotton price is moving down. In the short term, the supply pressure is hard to relieve, and the opening price is expected to adjust with the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will be in a weak oscillation, with limited downward space [2]. - For sugar, from January to August 2025, China imported 734,300 tons of syrup and white - sugar premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 716,700 tons. The spot prices of sugar groups in various regions have been lowered. The raw - sugar futures price continued to be weak, hitting a new low. With beet sugar about to be on the market, the domestic spot price has further declined. The market sentiment is cautious. The view on the futures market is still weak, and short positions can be held, with the downward depth adjusted dynamically. Attention should be paid to the pre - sale of new domestic sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Research Views - Cotton: The price of ICE U.S. cotton and CF601 decreased. The main - contract positions increased. The spot price index declined. Internationally, the post - meeting situation and differences in the interest - rate cut path affect the market. Domestically, new - cotton supply pressure is high. In the short term, the supply pressure persists and the price is expected to be weak [2]. - Sugar: The import volume of syrup and white - sugar premixed powder decreased year - on - year. Spot prices in various regions were lowered. The raw - sugar futures price was weak, and domestic prices declined with the upcoming beet - sugar supply. The market sentiment is cautious, and a weak view is held on the futures market [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 5, down 20. The main - contract basis was 1,614, up 51. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,146 yuan per ton, down 52, and the national spot price was 15,224 yuan per ton, down 59 [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 19, up 2. The main - contract basis was 413, down 31. The Nanning spot price was 5,800 yuan per ton, down 30, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5,865 yuan per ton, down 40 [3]. 3. Market Information - Cotton: On September 22, the cotton futures warehouse - receipt quantity was 4,096, down 136, with 12 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load remained unchanged, the yarn inventory decreased slightly, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth inventory remained unchanged [4]. - Sugar: On September 22, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased. The sugar futures warehouse - receipt quantity was 10,315, down 49, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Cotton: Charts show the cotton main - contract closing price, main - contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff - quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China cotton price index [7][10][12]. - Sugar: Charts show the sugar main - contract closing price, main - contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [15][18]. 5. Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, a resource - product research director focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, responsible for research on urea, soda - ash glass, etc.; and Sun Chengzhen, mainly engaged in the fundamental research of cotton, cotton yarn, etc. [20][21][22]