粮农认卖情绪偏高，玉米突破前低

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is expected to maintain a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern. In the short term, there is a harvest pressure from the concentrated listing of new grains, with strong expectations of restorative yield increase and lower costs driving prices down. In the long term, prices are not pessimistic under the scenario of tightening carry - over stocks [1][2]. - For other agricultural products: - Oils are likely to continue to oscillate in the short term and may rise again in the medium term due to factors such as the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September, potential reduction in US soybean yields, and increased overseas biodiesel demand [5]. - Protein meals are expected to oscillate and rise. The market is dominated by fundamentals, with US soybeans entering the harvest period and South American sowing progress uncertain [6]. - The hog market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Supply is abundant in the short and medium term, while the long - term outlook may improve if the "anti - involution" policy effectively reduces production capacity [8]. - Rubber prices are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, supported by data revisions and short - term fundamentals [9][10]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain an interval oscillation pattern, with no significant changes in short - term fundamentals and raw materials [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to adjust downward in the medium term due to the expected large yield increase in Xinjiang cotton in the new season, but may have short - term rebound opportunities [12]. - Sugar prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the long term and downward - seeking support in the short term due to the expected supply surplus in the new season [14]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the driving force and valuation unable to provide consistent guidance [15]. - Double - gum paper is expected to oscillate narrowly, and short - term unilateral strategies can consider operating within the 4100 - 4400 range [16]. - Logs are expected to oscillate around 800 in the short term, with marginal improvement in fundamentals but lack of strong upward driving force and pressure from the delivery side [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn - Current Situation: Domestic spot prices are differentiated. Northeast deep - processing prices are falling due to increased arrivals, while port prices are strong due to high shipping demand. New grain listing is concentrated in eastern Heilongjiang, and there are issues with grain quality in North China [1]. - Short - term Outlook: There is a harvest pressure from new grain listing, and the addition of a new Wednesday directional auction session for imported corn with lower reserve prices has increased pessimism. Consider short - selling opportunities and reverse - spread arbitrage [2]. - Long - term Outlook: In the scenario of tightening carry - over stocks, prices are not pessimistic, and the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [2]. 3.2 Oils - Current Situation: Last Friday, US beans and crude oil prices fell. The area affected by drought in US soybeans has expanded, and the excellent - good rate has been continuously lowered. Malaysian palm oil production in September is expected to decline month - on - month, and exports have increased. Domestic soybean imports are expected to seasonally decline, and soybean oil inventories may peak [5]. - Outlook: In the short term, continue to pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower support. In the medium term, prices may rise again due to multiple factors [5]. 3.3 Protein Meals - Current Situation: International soybean trade premiums have increased. US soybeans are entering the harvest period, and South American sowing progress is slow. Domestically, oil mills are operating at a high rate, and downstream is stocking up before the festival. The import volume of soybeans from September to November is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [6]. - Outlook: The market is dominated by fundamentals. US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and double - meal prices are expected to oscillate and rise. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910, and add positions at 2980 - 3000 when the market stabilizes [6]. 3.4 Hogs - Current Situation: The National Development and Reform Commission is continuing to purchase 15,000 tons of hogs for storage. In the short term, the supply of hogs is abundant, and the demand is affected by factors such as the increase in the ratio of live pigs to meat and the narrowing of the price difference between fat and lean pigs. The inventory is at a high level [8]. - Outlook: In the short term, prices are weakly oscillating. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is effectively implemented, prices may gradually strengthen in 2026 [8]. 3.5 Rubber - Current Situation: Rubber prices first fell and then rose, mainly due to the downward revision of inventory data. Fundamentally, the spot is strong, inventory is being reduced, and the basis is continuously narrowing. Supply may be affected by precipitation at the end of September, and downstream procurement willingness needs to be observed [9][10]. - Outlook: Prices are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, and a short - term long - buying strategy can be considered during the callback in September [10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Current Situation: The BR disk fluctuates with natural rubber prices, and there are no major contradictions. The absolute price and operating logic have not changed much recently. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level since listing [12]. - Outlook: The short - term fundamentals and raw materials are expected to have no significant changes, and the disk is expected to oscillate within the range [12]. 3.7 Cotton - Current Situation: The current contradiction in the domestic market is between the tight inventory at the end of the old - new year conversion period and the expected yield increase in the new season. The demand has seasonally improved, but the upward driving force is limited. The new cotton harvest is about to start, and the purchase price may first rise and then fall [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, pay attention to the support at 13,500 yuan/ton and short - term rebound opportunities. In the medium term, prices are expected to adjust downward due to the expected yield increase [12]. 3.8 Sugar - Current Situation: Last week, Zhengzhou sugar prices moved down, breaking through the 5,500 yuan/ton platform. The international trade flow is loose, and domestic sugar imports increased in August [14]. - Outlook: In the long term, prices are expected to be weakly oscillating due to the expected supply surplus in the new season. In the short term, prices are expected to seek support downward [14]. 3.9 Pulp - Current Situation: Pulp futures are oscillating at a low level. After the 09 contract delivery, the market has reached a consensus on the price of Russian needles. The US dollar price of softwood pulp is expected to decline, and the paper market has not effectively transmitted the changes [15]. - Outlook: The driving force and valuation cannot provide consistent guidance, and the futures are expected to oscillate [15]. 3.10 Double - gum Paper - Current Situation: After listing, the disk has been oscillating around 4,200 yuan, lacking a substantial driving force. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from publishers' tenders has not started [16]. - Outlook: Short - term unilateral strategies can consider operating within the 4100 - 4400 range [16]. 3.11 Logs - Current Situation: The disk first rose and then fell, and the 09 contract was smoothly delivered. The downstream sales have improved since mid - September, and the delivery logic has a negative impact on the disk [18]. - Outlook: The buyer's willingness to take delivery is poor, and the disk is expected to oscillate around 800 in the short term [18].