2025年9月港股通月报：港股通25年9月调整回顾及26年3月调整测算-20250923

Group 1: Market Adjustment Overview - In September 2025, 20 stocks were added to and 20 stocks were removed from the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with 19 of the new additions matching prior predictions[9] - The average market capitalization of the stocks added was 246.5 billion HKD, with the highest being 445.6 billion HKD for Yaojie Ankang-B[7] - Prior to the adjustment, the added stocks experienced an average price increase of 16.30% over the previous month, 4.54% over the previous week, and 5.76% on the last trading day[10] Group 2: Stock Performance Analysis - The average price change on the adjustment day was -2.10%, followed by an average increase of 16.07% in the week after the adjustment[10] - Stocks added to the Connect outperformed their respective industry indices prior to the adjustment, with average relative returns of 10.84%, 1.94%, and 3.19% over the previous month, week, and day respectively[13] - The average relative return on the adjustment day was -3.02%, with a subsequent average return of 13.49% in the following week[13] Group 3: Future Projections - For March 2026, 17 stocks are projected to meet the Hong Kong Stock Connect eligibility criteria, with the lowest estimated market capitalization being 89.1 billion HKD[29] - An additional 29 stocks are close to meeting the criteria, with market capitalizations ranking between the 94th and 96th percentiles[31] - The analysis assumes that trading data from September to December will maintain August's average levels, which may affect future eligibility[29][31] Group 4: Risk Factors - Market capitalization ranking fluctuations pose a risk, as the assessment for March 2026 will consider a full 12-month period, potentially impacting the results[35] - Changes in liquidity ratios could affect stock eligibility, especially if significant changes in shareholding occur[35] - Regulatory changes regarding the inclusion criteria for the Hong Kong Stock Connect may also impact future adjustments[35]