贵属策略报：银调整后再度冲

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, precious metals hit new highs again. After a slight adjustment last week, gold and silver prices continued to rise due to the sustained bullish logic in the fourth quarter [1][3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts remains the core bullish driver for gold. With moderate inflation and weak employment, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have expanded to three times this year. After the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, dovish expectations are expected to drive gold prices higher. The potential increase in Trump's control over the Fed and the risk of reduced Fed independence strengthen the narrative of a weakening US dollar credit, providing greater upside potential for gold prices. The target price for US - dollar - denominated gold this year is maintained at 4000 [3]. - Silver trends follow gold. As the US fundamentals have not declined sharply and soft - landing trades dominate the market, the suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly eased. Silver prices are expected to follow gold's upward trend and may challenge the 2011 historical high of around $50 in the first and second quarters [3]. - The weekly range for spot London gold is [3600, 3800], and for spot London silver is [41, 45] [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Key Information - Both short - term spending bills of the two US political parties failed to pass the Senate, putting efforts to avoid a government shutdown into a deadlock. Trump warned of a possible government shutdown [2]. - Trump signed an executive order to reform the H - 1B visa program, requiring applicants to pay $100,000. He also launched the "Trump Gold Card" visa program, selling US residency to global wealthy individuals. An individual applicant can pay up to $5 million for a maximum stay of 270 days without paying taxes on overseas income. The US Commerce Secretary expects the program to raise over $100 billion for the US government [2]. - Trump will meet with Arab leaders on Tuesday to discuss a cease - fire in Gaza [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core bullish factor for gold. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have expanded to three times this year, and dovish expectations are expected to drive gold prices higher. The potential change in Fed leadership and the risk of reduced Fed independence strengthen the downward trend of US dollar credit, providing more upside for gold prices. The target price for US - dollar - denominated gold this year is 4000. Silver trends follow gold, and its price is expected to challenge the 2011 historical high [3]. 3.3 Market Data - On September 22, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index, the specialty commodity index, and the industrial product index were 2236.63 (+0.17%), 2510.95 (+0.44%), and 2246.26 (-0.34%) respectively [44]. - The precious metals index on September 22, 2025, was 2967.44, with a daily increase of 2.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.62%, a 1 - month increase of 8.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 34.13% [45]. - The PPI commodity index was 1320.47, with an increase of 0.03% [45].