集运日报：SCFIS持续下跌，但运价接近盈亏线，盘面止跌反弹，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20250923

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously falling, but the freight rate is approaching the break - even line, and the futures market has stopped falling and rebounded. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Freight Rate Index - On September 22, SCFIS (European route) was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, SCFI was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, NCFI (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, CCFI (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1, higher than expected [3]. - China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, service PMI preliminary value was 55.4, and Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, all higher than expected [3]. c. Tariff and Market Strategy - Sino - US tariff negotiations have no substantial progress, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect. The focus is on spot freight rates [4]. - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions, wait for the bottom - building opportunity, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [4]. d. Contract Information - On September 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1093.7, up 2.00%, with a trading volume of 4.49 million lots and an open interest of 4.60 million lots, a decrease of 1685 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].