原油、燃料油日报：欧盟制裁及库存变化下，油价短期持续震荡-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that crude oil prices may maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Supply - side factors such as EU sanctions on Russia and a decline in Saudi crude oil inventory may limit supply and support oil prices. However, futures prices have declined slightly, and there is bearish sentiment in the market. If demand does not improve significantly, it will also restrict the upside potential of oil prices [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes: On September 22, SC futures price dropped to 483.0 yuan/barrel, a 0.82% decline from September 19; WTI futures price decreased to 62.34 dollars/barrel, a 0.03% decline; Brent futures price fell to 66.01 dollars/barrel, a 0.06% decline. Most spreads weakened, with SC - Brent spread down 22.31%, SC - WTI spread down 9.17%, Brent - WTI spread down 0.54%, and SC continuous - 3 spread down 42.22% [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: On September 19, the EU passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, which may affect Russian crude oil supply and trade. Saudi's crude oil inventory in July decreased by 7.062 million barrels to 145.352 million barrels, indicating a possible supply tightening [2]. - Demand Side: The demand during the autumn - winter distillate oil stocking season was poor, leading to a counter - seasonal increase in inventory. The US refinery operating rate dropped by 3.6 percentage points to 93.3%, suggesting the start of traditional autumn inspections and the approaching end of seasonal peak demand, which may cause an imbalance in the crude oil supply - demand pattern [3]. - Inventory Side: On September 22, the medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels; fuel oil futures warehouse receipts were 127,140 tons, unchanged; low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures receipts were 10,020 tons, unchanged [4]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent all declined slightly. Most spot prices also decreased, with Dubai's price down 1.04%. Among spreads, SC - Brent spread decreased by 22.31%. US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.19%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate dropped by 1.69% [7]. - Fuel Oil: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel all declined. Most spot and paper - cargo prices showed changes, with Singapore's inventory decreasing by 4.21% [8]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply: On September 19, the EU passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade restrictions [9][11][13]. - Inventory: Saudi's crude oil inventory in July decreased by 7.062 million barrels to 145.352 million barrels. Some futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, while some decreased, like the petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts [12]. 3.5 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent prices and spreads, US crude oil production, OPEC production, refinery operating rates, and inventories, with data sources such as WIND, EIA, and PAJ [14][16][18]