四季度铜市场展望与策略

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is expected to break through the range, but there is a risk of a stage correction at the end of the year. The price of copper is predicted to gradually rise from 2022 - 2026, and the market in 4Q25 will seek an upward breakthrough in a volatile manner. [4] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the positive spread arbitrage of Shanghai copper in 4Q25 and remaining on the sidelines for the domestic - foreign spread. For unilateral trading, it is advisable to arrange medium - term long positions on dips. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Judgment and Strategy - The key factors affecting the copper market are the dollar cycle, tariff expectations, inventory cycle, and disturbance risks. In a structural market with increased volatility, the accumulation purchase strategy is more suitable for hedging. [2][3] - The long - term bullish logic includes the dollar credit cycle, supply - chain risks, resource bottlenecks, strong new demand momentum, and stable old demand. However, there are risks such as policy risks (tariff escalation), medium - long - term liquidity tightening expectations, and a significant decline in domestic demand. [4] US Tariff Impact - On August 1st, there was an unexpected change in the copper tariff policy, with raw materials including refined copper and anode copper getting a phased tariff exemption. There is no need to overly worry about the risk of copper inventory moving out of the US, and it is necessary to continue tracking the marginal change in the spread and the delivery situation of US LME inventory. This does not constitute a short - term strong negative factor but restricts the short - term upward elasticity of copper prices. [5] - The US refined copper inventory increased by more than 500,000 tons year - on - year from January to July (the risk of concentrated delivery on COMEX still exists). The necessary conditions for inventory to move out of the US are a negative spread between COMEX and LME and the spread being sufficient to cover transportation and capital costs. [5] Fed Politicization - In the short term, the trend of Fed politicization, combined with weak dollar and inflation - rising expectations, is positive for copper prices. In the medium - long term, the risk of severe inflation and subsequent inflation - control measures will be negative for copper prices. [6] Supply Side - Copper Mine - The production of major copper - producing countries shows different trends. For example, from 2020 - 2026F, Chile's production is expected to increase from 5.73 million tons to 5.7 million tons, while Australia's is expected to decrease from 850,000 tons to 750,000 tons. [9] - Geopolitical conflicts, unstable political situations, extreme weather, labor union movements, and complex environmental factors in copper - producing regions may lead to unexpected risks in copper supply. [13] Supply Side - Cold Material - There has been a change in the structure of imported scrap copper, with the US re - exporting to Thailand and Japan, while Europe and the Asia - Pacific region are increasing the use of scrap copper. Domestic scrap copper supply is not weak, but the limitation lies in the processing link. The profit of recycled copper processing continues to be under pressure. [19] Supply Side - Raw Materials - China's copper raw material supply - demand gap is expanding. At the current raw material supply level, high - production in the fourth quarter is difficult to sustain. The surge in non - standard raw material imports and raw material inventory are used to supplement smelting raw materials, but their sustainability is questionable. [24] Supply Side - Refined Copper - The spot processing fees (TC/RC) are hovering at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new long - term agreement negotiation. The domestic sulfuric acid price has peaked and declined, and the RMB exchange rate has appreciated, leading to an expected expansion of smelting processing losses and increasing the operating pressure on smelters from 4Q25 - 1Q26. [28] - Overseas smelters are facing raw material shortages, with an expanding scope of production cuts. The new round of overseas capacity expansion will be restricted by the tight raw material supply. [34] Demand Side - Macro Perspective - The global economy is in the transition stage from "recession" to "recovery", with market expectations fluctuating. The policy cycle is in a stage of loose liquidity and expanding fiscal stimulus. The global manufacturing industry may continue to recover, and a more obvious upward trend may be observed in 1H26. [44] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Domestic) - In the power equipment sector, investment by the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid maintains high growth, while local project investment is weak. The demand for power equipment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the "15th Five - Year Plan" related plans. [49] - The core drivers of domestic demand are consumption - stimulating policies and weather factors. The core drivers of external demand are that export demand weakened in the second quarter, while demand from the Asia - Pacific and the Middle East is relatively strong. [56] - In the real estate sector, the decline in completion and new construction areas is narrowing, and the drag on copper demand from the real estate industry is gradually weakening. Policy support is expected to continue to strengthen. [60] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Overseas) - In the US, micro - demand is resilient, with C - end demand showing a downward trend and B - end demand remaining strong. The probability of a severe recession and a sharp decline in demand is low, and the actual annual growth rate of demand is greater than 5%. [68] - In Europe, terminal demand is differentiated, with strong demand in the power sector and weak demand in consumer goods. In Japan, demand is stable with a slight decline. In emerging markets, both C - end and B - end demand are strong, such as India's direct copper demand (including scrap) growing by 19% year - on - year in 2Q25. [72] New Energy Industry Chain - The demand for traditional new energy sources (wind and solar power) has slowed down, but the demand for new energy vehicles is strong. The demand from emerging industries such as AI data centers and energy storage is growing strongly. [77] Supply - Demand Balance - From 2022 - 2026, the global copper supply - demand situation is experiencing "weak shortage - expanding gap - expanding gap - narrowing gap - expanding gap". [4][80] Trading Logic - The main trading logics in 2025 include the dollar cycle, inventory cycle, and manufacturing cycle. If certain scenarios such as A, B, D, F, H, or K occur, the copper price may rise by more than 20% in a stage. [85] - The secondary trading logics include factors such as the continuous weakening or strengthening of global or regional manufacturing industry prosperity, policy stimulus intensity, and unexpected events in the industry. If scenarios such as E, C, G, or J occur, the copper price may fall by more than 20% in a stage. [85]