Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-23 08:32Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market's oversupply situation persists, causing pig prices to remain under pressure and trend weakly. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation during the Double Festival. Technically, the pig 2511 contract dropped 1.48%, was pressured by the system moving averages, and continued its weak trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 12,665 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 93,514 lots, down 531 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 427 lots, down 1 lot; and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -23,708 lots, up 575 lots [2]. Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 12,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin it was 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong it was 13,400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; and the main live pig basis was 35 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Pig inventory was 42.447 million heads, up 716,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 4.042 million heads, down 1,000 heads [2]. Industry Situation - The year-on-year CPI was -0.4%, down 0.4 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,920 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of corn was 2,356.47 yuan/ton, down 1.96 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 887.66, down 5.93; the monthly feed output was 29.272 million tons, up 999,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,625 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit from purchasing piglets was -199.31 yuan/head, down 37.38 yuan; the breeding profit from self - bred and self - raised pigs was -24.44 yuan/head, down 41.28 yuan; the monthly pork import volume was 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; and the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 3.166 million heads, up 160,000 heads; the monthly catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales was 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises from Shanghai Ganglian, on September 23, 2025, the daily national live pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 293,373 heads, up 1.12% from the previous day. The supply side has pressure in the near - term based on the number of newborn piglets and the inventory of breeding sows. Coupled with the guidance from the symposium on pig production capacity regulation enterprises to reduce slaughter weight and limit secondary fattening, the breeding side is actively slaughtering in the short term, and the willingness of retail farmers and secondary fatteners to sell has also increased. The demand side has gradually warmed up with the cooling temperature and falling prices, but the overall growth is limited [2].