贵金属专题报告：白银强势突破，迭创新高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After two months of consolidation, the silver market saw a breakthrough in September, with both domestic and international prices hitting multi - year highs. The strong upward trend is driven by multiple factors including macro - environment, supply - demand balance, and gold - silver ratio repair [2][5]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's continued interest rate cuts is strengthening, which provides a solid foundation for the rise of precious metals including silver [11][12]. - The silver market in 2025 is expected to have a supply - demand gap, and the continuous strength of industrial demand, supply - demand imbalance, and low inventory support the long - term price elasticity and allocation value of silver [17][18]. - The current gold - silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, indicating that silver is undervalued and has room for a price correction [20]. - Looking ahead, loose monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties will support silver prices, but risks such as speculative profit - taking and changes in the inflation situation should be noted. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to key price levels [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In September, after two months of consolidation, the silver market had a breakthrough. The New York silver price exceeded $43 per ounce and reached a high of $44.395 per ounce on September 23, with a year - to - date increase of over 50%. The domestic Shanghai silver also reached a record high of 10,359 yuan per kilogram, with a year - to - date increase of over 35% [2][5]. - The strong rise in silver prices is due to multiple factors. Macroeconomically, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and geopolitical tensions boost silver. Industrially, the demand from sectors like photovoltaics, new - energy vehicles, and semiconductors is strong, leading to a supply - demand imbalance. The current gold - silver ratio is high, indicating undervaluation of silver [2][5]. 3.2 Macro Policy Expectations Driving Precious Metals Up - Economic indicators show a significant slowdown in the US labor market. In August, non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The inflation data shows some stickiness, and the PPI is in deflation. The initial jobless claims in the week of September 6 soared to 263,000, heightening concerns about economic slowdown [11]. - Market expectations for the Fed's continued interest rate cuts are strengthening. The September FOMC meeting cut rates by 25 basis points. As of September 22, the CME data shows a 91.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in October and an 80.6% probability of another 25 - basis - point cut in December, which supports the rise of precious metals [12]. 3.3 Tight Supply - Demand Structure of Silver and Strong Industrial Demand - In 2024, global silver supply increased moderately. Global mined silver production was 819.7 million ounces, up 0.9% year - on - year, and recycled silver supply reached 193.9 million ounces, up 6% year - on - year. The total demand decreased by 3% to 1.16 billion ounces, with a significant structural differentiation. Industrial demand reached a record high, especially in electronics, photovoltaics, and other fields [17]. - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to increase by 2% to 1.0306 billion ounces, and total demand is expected to decrease slightly by 1% to 1.1483 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 117.6 million ounces. Excluding ETPs, the physical gap will widen to 187.6 million ounces. The supply - demand gap and low inventory support the price of silver in the long - term [18]. 3.4 Gold - Silver Ratio Repair and Enhanced Silver's Catch - up Momentum - The current domestic and international gold - silver ratios are about 82 and 85 respectively, significantly higher than the historical averages of the past 50 years (63) and 20 years (70), indicating that silver is undervalued and has room for a price correction [20]. - Historically, when the gold - silver ratio is high, silver usually lags behind and then catches up. In the current context of interest rate cut expectations and industrial demand recovery, silver's financial and commodity attributes resonate, attracting capital inflows [20]. 3.5 Future Operation Suggestions - Loose monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support silver prices, but risks such as speculative profit - taking and changes in inflation data should be noted [3][25]. - It is recommended to buy on dips, focus on the effectiveness of support around $40 per ounce, and set upward targets at around $45 per ounce and $48 per ounce. Attention should be paid to controlling positions and closely monitoring macro - data and capital trends [3][25].