Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-23 09:05Report Overview - Report Title: Plastic Industry Daily Report (2025-09-23) [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558) - Assistant Researcher: Xu Tianze (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03133092) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - L2601 fluctuated weakly and closed at 7,105 yuan/ton. Affected by the restart of plants such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Zhongying Petrochemical, last week's PE production and capacity utilization increased month-on-month. Downstream demand recovered seasonally, driving the downstream PE operating rate to rise month-on-month. Producer inventories increased slightly, while social inventories decreased month-on-month, and the overall inventory pressure was not significant. This week, only Baolai's 350,000-ton high-density plant was newly added, and the restart of plants such as Yulong, Guoneng Xinjiang, and Jinhai Chemical is expected to increase PE production and capacity utilization month-on-month. ExxonMobil's 500,000-ton low-density plant is expected to be put into production within the month, increasing medium- to long-term industry supply pressure. The greenhouse film market has entered the peak season, with continuous recovery in agricultural film orders; packaging film orders still have room for growth driven by domestic Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, daily chemical, and gift packaging demands. With the approaching long holiday, downstream stocking demand is being released. In terms of costs, the continuous impact of OPEC+ production increases and the medium- to long-term expectation of global crude oil supply exceeding demand have put some pressure on oil prices, although short-term geopolitical situations remain uncertain. The LLDPE supply-demand game has led the market to continuously decline to a relatively low valuation level, and the decline is expected to slow down and gradually stop in the future [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7,105, down 25; 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7,105, down 25; 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7,145, down 42; 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7,193, down 36 [3]. - 成交量(日,手) was 180,643, down 30,320; 持仓量(日,手) was 589,676, up 8,837 [3]. - 9-1价差 was 81, down 11 [3]. - 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) was 429,337, up 6,635; 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) was 488,033, up 9,642; 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) was -58,696, down 3,007 [3]. Spot Market - LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) was 7,193.48, down 19.57; LLDPE(7042)均价:华东(日,元/吨) was 7,318.81, down 8.1 [3]. - 基差 was 63.48, up 19.44 [3]. Upstream Situation - FOB:中间价:石脑油:新加坡地区(日,美元/桶) was 64.23, down 0.28; CFR:中间价:石脑油:日本地区(日,美元/吨) was 595.63, down 1.12 [3]. - 乙烯:CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) was 841, unchanged; 乙烯:CFR东北亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) was 846, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - 开工率:PE:石化:全国(日,%) was 80.36, up 2.32 [3]. Downstream Situation - 开工率:聚乙烯(PE):包装膜(周,%) was 51.78, up 0.48; 开工率:聚乙烯(PE):管材(周,%) was 31.83, up 0.16; 开工率:聚乙烯(PE):农膜(周,%) was 26.75, up 2.63 [3]. Option Market - 历史波动率:20日:聚乙烯(日,%) was 6.55, up 1.61; 历史波动率:40日:聚乙烯(日,%) was 6.17, up 0.13 [3]. - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率:聚乙烯(日,%) was 10.26, up 0.05; 平值看涨期权隐含波动率:聚乙烯(日,%) was 10.27, up 0.07 [3]. Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, China's weekly PE production increased by 2.97% month-on-month to 631,000 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 2.23% month-on-month to 80.36% [3]. - From September 12th to 18th, the average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.8% month-on-month, with the agricultural film operating rate increasing by 2.6% month-on-month [3]. - As of September 17th, the inventory of PE producers was 490,300 tons, up 0.68% from the previous period; as of September 19th, the PE social inventory was 534,800 tons, down 2.17% from the previous period [3]. - As of September 19th, the cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 1.24% week-on-week to 7,550 yuan/ton, and the oil-based profit decreased by 93 yuan/ton week-on-week to -300 yuan/ton; the cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 0.52% week-on-week to 6,308 yuan/ton, and the coal-based profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton week-on-week to 893 yuan/ton [3].