瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2601 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, US President Trump stated that he would meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, and Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded that the two heads of state maintain close communication. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrivals increased. The domestic port inventory changed from increasing to decreasing. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills increased, and the molten iron output remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the molten iron output remained at a high level, and there was an expectation of stockpiling before the National Day holiday, but the weak steel market also dragged down the iron ore price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 802.50 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan; the position volume was 546,570 lots, down 15,454 lots. The 1 - 5 contract spread was 22.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 30,146 lots, down 1,800 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt was 2,000.00 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 105.95 US dollars/ton, down 0.70 US dollars [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 868 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 859 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 770 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 56 yuan, up 4 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 106.75 US dollars/ton, up 0.20 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.28, up 0.02. The estimated import cost was 872 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 33.248 million tons, down 2.483 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) was 27.504 million tons, up 3.581 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 143.8168 million tons, down 0.7444 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 93.0943 million tons, up 3.1638 million tons [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 105.22 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 24 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 0.4081 million tons, up 0.0013 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.23%, up 0.30%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 0.3767 million tons, up 0.024 million tons. The BDI index was 2,172.00, down 31.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.07 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.775 US dollars/ton, down 0.16 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 84.00%, up 0.15%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.38%, up 0.18%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.04%, down 0.53%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.93%, down 0.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 20.91%, down 0.45%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 21.61%, up 0.47% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 15th to September 21st, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.248 million tons, down 2.483 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.728 million tons, down 2.05 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 19.188 million tons, down 1.658 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.712 million tons, down 2.65 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 8.54 million tons, down 0.392 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 27.504 million tons, up 3.581 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 26.75 million tons, up 3.127 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.9 million tons, up 0.45 million tons [2].