瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends buying industrial silicon on dips, suggesting an overall positive investment rating for the industrial silicon industry [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite a decline in industrial silicon prices on the day, the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The supply glut situation has not improved, and downstream demand is generally flat. The industry inventory is still at a high level, but the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased. It is advisable to buy on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,925 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the open interest of the main contract is 273,696 lots, down 11,794 lots; the net position of the top 20 is -67,515 lots, up 224 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 49,963 lots, up 161 lots; the closing price of the December contract is -400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts is -400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 575 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, up 0.09 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4,154.82 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.12%, down 1.59 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, up 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4,154.82 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 15, the Ningxia Development and Reform Commission and the Northwest Regulatory Bureau of the National Energy Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for Deepening the Market - Oriented Reform of New Energy On - grid Electricity Prices in the Autonomous Region", promoting new energy on - grid electricity to participate in market transactions. In terms of industrial silicon, the current operating rate is 33.12%, down 1.91 percentage points. There is an expectation of production cuts in the southwest region, while the northwest region has stable production due to electricity price advantages [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the overall supply glut situation has not improved. On the demand side, the demand from the organic silicon industry for industrial silicon is negative; the demand from the polysilicon industry has increased, but there are limitations to its continued growth; the demand from the aluminum alloy industry is average. The overall demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon remains flat [2]