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瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250923

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the HC2601 contract opened lower and moved lower. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.4%. Demand declined slightly and inventory increased. Overall, hot - rolled coil production remained at a high level, terminal demand had strong resilience, and the steel market was intertwined with long and short factors, so the futures price might fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward with an enlarged green column. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the position volume was 1367093 lots, down 15676 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 97,783 lots, up 14344 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread was 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38151 tons, down 280 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 185 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,410 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,370 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 70 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar was 90 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, down 9 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 13,804.22 million tons, down 48.91 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 42.21 million tons, down 1.55 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 644.90 million tons, up 11.29 million tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 121.73 million tons, down 7.22 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.38%, up 0.18 percentage points. The output of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills was 326.49 million tons, up 1.35 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 83.40%, up 0.34 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 81.30 million tons, up 0.42 million tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 296.69 million tons, up 4.25 million tons. The domestic crude steel output was 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 901.00 million tons, down 38.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 281.54 million vehicles, up 22.43 million vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 285.66 million vehicles, up 26.32 million vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 1,681.88 million units, down 377.77 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 945.32 million units, up 72.25 million units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 1,013.18 million units, up 135.75 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On September 23, the National Energy Administration released the data on全社会 electricity consumption in August, reaching 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The全社会 electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh in July and August, which was the first time globally. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment held the 2025 air pollution prevention and control work conference in Beijing [2].