瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina main contract is oscillating weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient with a slight increase, while demand growth is less than supply growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract is oscillating weakly, with decreasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The cast aluminum main contract is oscillating weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply is restricted by raw materials, demand has a slight recovery but consumption is still weak, and inventory is slightly accumulating. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,685.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,877.00 yuan/ton, down 57.00 yuan [2]. - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 10.00 yuan/ton, the open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 225,448.00 lots; the main - second - consecutive contract spread of alumina is - 20.00 yuan/ton, the open interest of the alumina main contract is 328,210.00 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 109,225.00 tons, the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,655.00 US dollars/ton, down 21.00 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 513,900.00 tons [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is - 6,865.00 lots, down 9,584.00 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.79, up 0.04 [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,280.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan; the open interest of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 11,186.00 lots, up 419.00 lots [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts are 68,960.00 tons, down 1,801.00 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 127,734.00 tons, down 765.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,850.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,680.00 yuan/ton, down 100.00 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,930.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,690.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 570.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 5.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wumaomao aluminum premium/discount is - 20.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 4.14 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of alumina is 53.00 yuan/ton, up 47.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The output of alumina is 792.47 million tons per month, the national alumina start - up rate is 82.93%, down 1.09%; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45% [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 725.80 million tons per month, up 3.73 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 28.73 million tons per month, up 12.41 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,450.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; the average price of crushed primary aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 16,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 172,610.37 tons per month, up 12,115.77 tons; the export volume is 53.23 tons per month, down 26.16 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina is 18.00 million tons per month, down 5.00 million tons; the import volume of alumina is 9.44 million tons per month, down 3.16 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is - 11.99 million tons per month, down 30.30 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 59.80 million tons per week, up 0.40 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 217,260.71 tons per month, down 30,322.61 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 25,604.34 tons per month, down 15,383.37 tons [2]. - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons per month, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate is 98.11%, up 0.33% [2]. - The output of aluminum products is 554.82 million tons per month, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 53.00 million tons per month, down 1.00 million tons [2]. - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 63.59 million tons per month, up 1.27 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.91 million tons per month, up 0.42 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons per month, unchanged; the National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. - The output of aluminum alloy is 163.50 million tons per month, up 9.90 million tons; the output of automobiles is 275.24 million vehicles per month, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.66%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.18%, up 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.22%, up 0.0017; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.14, up 0.0771 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Bostic believes there is not much reason to cut rates further, expecting only one rate cut this year; Musalem thinks the space for further rate cuts is limited [2]. - By the end of June, the number of local government financing platforms decreased by more than 60% compared with March 2023, and the financial debt scale decreased by more than 50%. China's current monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose [2]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with a US congressional delegation, stating that China and the US should promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of bilateral economic and trade relations [2]. - China's 1 - year LPR in September is 3%, and the over - 5 - year variety is 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. Analysts expect the central bank to cut interest rates and reserve requirements in the fourth quarter [2].