Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-23 09:14Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda futures market has seen a decline, with SH2601 down 3.32% to 2535 yuan/ton. The spot price of Shandong liquid caustic soda is expected to remain under pressure due to the relatively loose supply during the pre - National Day restocking period for downstream industries. The alumina profit continues to shrink, and the procurement intention has weakened. The market sentiment has declined recently, and the futures price drop has led to a narrowing of the basis. There is still support for demand from the commissioning of new alumina plants from the fourth quarter to early next year, and attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking rhythm. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2509 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton; the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May are 2535 yuan/ton and 2625 yuan/ton respectively, down 69 yuan/ton and 71 yuan/ton. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 9018 lots, an increase of 2008 lots. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 477688 lots, an increase of 35228 lots, and the position is 114144 lots, an increase of 12443 lots [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 940 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis is - 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 0 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2950 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 81.9%, a decrease of 1.5% compared to the previous week. From September 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.02% to 86.23%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.75% to 89.52%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 65.76%. As of September 18th, the national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.02% to 37.83 tons, with the trend changing from decreasing to increasing. From September 12th to 18th, the Shandong chlor - alkali profit decreased to 328 yuan/ton [3]. Outlook - Multiple plants such as Xinpu Chemical, Gansu Jinchuan, and Heilongjiang Haohua are expected to restart this week, which is expected to drive the caustic soda capacity utilization rate to increase month - on - month. The alumina profit continues to shrink, and although there is no cost - based production cut yet, the procurement intention has weakened significantly. The terminal demand in the traditional peak season is average, and non - aluminum downstream industries are resistant to high prices [3].