瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3] 2. Core View of the Report - After the gold and silver prices quickly break through important levels, they may face upward resistance, and the pressure for a correction may gradually increase. It is more likely that they will enter a phase of consolidation after hitting new highs, and stronger catalysts are needed to drive the gold price higher. It is recommended to wait and see for now and lightly lay out short positions on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 855.44 yuan/gram, up 8.94 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 10349 yuan/kg, up 32 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 271554 lots, up 11298 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 508755 lots, up 4704 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 173770 lots, down 552 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract are 111047 lots, down 17930 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 59013 kg, up 1584 kg; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1149043 kg, up 419 kg [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 847.8 yuan/gram, up 12.4 yuan; the spot price of silver is 10246 yuan/kg, up 79 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 7.64 yuan/gram, up 3.46 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 103 yuan/kg, up 47 yuan [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 1000.57 tons, up 6.01 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 15368.9 tons, up 163.76 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266410 contracts, up 4670 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 51538 contracts, down 2399 contracts. The total supply of gold (quarterly) is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver (annually) is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold (quarterly) is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver (annually) is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.65%, up 0.18%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 18.91%. The 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.46%, up 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 18.91% [3] 3.5 Industry News - St. Louis Fed President Musalem said the current interest - rate level is between "slightly restrictive and neutral" with limited room for further rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Bostic doesn't support further rate cuts due to high inflation. Fed Governor Milan will push for rate cuts unless the situation changes. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 75.3%. Geopolitical conflicts provide safe - haven support, the preliminary Eurozone manufacturing PMI in September is 49.5, and the US government debt issue and the weak dollar support the gold price [3]