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瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory level of methanol in the mainland is still at a relatively low level, while the port inventory increased slightly last week. The提货 in the mainstream storage areas in Jiangsu remained good, and the restart of olefin plants in Zhejiang supported the recovery of consumption capacity. With reduced unloading, the inventory in East China decreased, while the inventory in South China continued to accumulate. The short - term volume of incoming foreign vessels is still at a relatively high level, and it is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to accumulate next week. The specific accumulation range depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in the提货 volume. In terms of demand, after the shutdown of the olefin plant in Qinghai Salt Lake and the restart of the Zhejiang Xingxing plant, the olefin operating rate increased last week. The olefin plants of Ningxia Baofeng Phase III and Shenhua Xinjiang are expected to restart this week, and the industry operating rate may continue to increase. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2380 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2343 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 967432 lots, an increase of 20442 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 145357 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8922, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2245 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2080 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 103 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 260 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 283 euros/ton, a decrease of 3 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 66 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.81 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.11 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 107.39 tons, a decrease of 1.56 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 48.39 tons, an increase of 2.31 tons. The methanol import profit was 3.69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 175.98 tons, an increase of 65.71 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 340500 tons, a decrease of 2100 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 79.91%, a decrease of 4.67 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 42.92%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 6.29%, an increase of 1.43 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid was 82.41%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 63.57%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins was 83.81%, an increase of 2.24 percentage points; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 987 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 11.35%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.5%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options of methanol was 15.67%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of September 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.05 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.38 tons, a decrease of 1.69 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%. As of September 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 155.78 tons, an increase of 0.75 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 1.56 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 2.31 tons. The port inventory fluctuated slightly this week. As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 84.89%, a month - on - month increase of 2.23% [2]