Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-23 09:11Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The bonded warehouse continued to reduce inventory, while the general trade warehouse continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas ship arrivals were concentrated for warehousing, and the warehousing volume at Qingdao warehouses increased significantly and exceeded expectations. The downstream tire factory orders were gradually picked up and shipped out, but the quantity was limited. The outbound volume of the bonded warehouse was better than that of the general trade warehouse, and the general trade warehouse continued to show a small - scale inventory accumulation state [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated narrowly last week. The domestic sales of snow - tire orders for semi - steel tires were in the concentrated production scheduling period, and some enterprises still moderately increased production, which still provided some support for the overall operation rate. The demand in the replacement market for all - steel tires did not improve significantly, and some enterprises faced pressure in foreign trade exports. Although some enterprises still had a shortage of goods, the overall shipment performance was lower than expected, and the inventory of some enterprises still showed an upward trend. To relieve the pressure, some enterprises might flexibly control production, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises might be slightly reduced. The ru2601 contract is expected to range between 15300 - 15750 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15525 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12395 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was 5 yuan/ton; the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton; the spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was - 60 yuan/ton [2]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 154459 lots, a decrease of 6812 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 58722 lots, a decrease of 26137 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were 3683 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were 2489 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 155020 tons, a decrease of 60 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 44856 tons, a decrease of 403 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Domestic Rubber Prices: The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14850 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14800 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [2]. - Synthetic Rubber Prices: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 was 12100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR 9000 was 11700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Foreign Rubber Prices: The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1835 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1835 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Thai Raw Material Prices: The market reference price of Thai RSS3 was 59.67 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai STR20 was 55.8 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.15 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was - 7.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 151 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars [2]. - Import Volumes: The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 11.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.88 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 26.84 million tons, an increase of 0.89 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Tire Production: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07%; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.66%, an increase of 0.2%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 39.13 days, an increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 46.02 days, an increase of 0.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 28 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5806 million pieces, an increase of 109 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.06%, a decrease of 1.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.41%, a decrease of 0.42%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.94%, a decrease of 0.15%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.97%, a decrease of 0.15% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 million tons, a decrease of 0.36 million tons or 0.76% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 6.94 million tons, a decrease of 5.07%; the general trade inventory was 39.18 million tons, an increase of 0.04%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [2]. - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2]. - In the coming first week (September 21 - 27, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in northern and central Vietnam, western Thailand, southern Myanmar, etc., and the precipitation in most of the remaining areas was at a medium level, which had an enhanced impact on rubber tapping. There were no red areas south of the equator, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a low level, which had a weakened impact on rubber tapping [2].