Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-23 09:10Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the Fed's news and takes profit, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to lay out long positions when the lead price is low [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,085 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the Shanghai lead position is 98,958 lots, down 1,965 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 280 lots, down 334 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt is 41,610 tons, down 2,747 tons; the SHFE inventory is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 1,999.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars; the LME lead inventory is 221,675 tons, up 1,375 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,975 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,170 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 45.16 US dollars/ton, down 1.44 US dollars; the price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,840 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS monthly supply - demand balance of lead is 22,000 tons, up 45,500 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,900 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG monthly supply - demand balance of lead is - 500 tons, up 1,300 tons; the ILZSG global lead ore monthly output is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons; the monthly refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries is 10,137.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of batteries is 49.68 million, up 1.925 million; the average daily price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,100 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 2,157.48 points, up 31.88 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.7524 million, up 242,400; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.333 million, up 157,000 [3]. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Bostic believes there is not much reason for further rate cuts this year and expects only one cut; Musalem thinks the space for further rate cuts is limited and won't support it if inflation risks increase; Harker is cautious about lifting policy restrictions; Milan believes the appropriate interest rate is around 2% and doesn't support adjusting the 2% inflation target. The US Treasury Secretary signals support for Argentina, and the Argentine stock market strengthens. The White House may exempt doctors' H - 1B visa fees. There are also other news such as the possible non - impact of the Saudi - Pakistani defense agreement on Saudi oil supply to India, the US energy minister's view on offshore wind power, France's recognition of the Palestinian state, Nvidia's plan to invest $100 billion in OpenAI, and Pfizer's acquisition of Metersa [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, some primary lead smelters in regions like Henan and Inner Mongolia are in the centralized maintenance stage. The raw - material market is in a tight - balance state, with lead concentrate processing fees continuously falling and mostly sold on a pre - sale basis. The output of primary lead continues to decline. For recycled lead, due to environmental inspections and lower waste - battery recycling efficiency, capacity release has slowed down, and the operation remains at a low level in the short term. In the waste - battery market, as it is the off - season for scrapping, there are not many stocks, and the arrival of goods at refineries is poor, which restricts the output of recycled lead. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries, the main consumption area of lead, is relatively stable. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is gradually warming up, and the market expects an increase in demand for lead in the main consumption areas. The energy - storage demand in emerging fields is also good. However, when the price rises, the spot trading is average, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. Although the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting has improved marginally and some battery factories have production - increase plans, the overall demand has not shown a significant explosive growth and is still in a slow - recovery stage. In terms of inventory, both domestic and foreign lead inventories have decreased, and the overall inventory has declined, indicating that demand effectively drives inventory reduction [3].