Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current inventory of old cotton is low, which supports cotton prices. Attention should be paid to the listing time of new cotton. However, the downstream spinning profit is poor, and the acceptance of high - priced cotton is limited. The new - season Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a bumper harvest, and there is significant hedging pressure on cotton prices before the new cotton is listed. The overall trend is stable but weak. Attention should be paid to the support level around 13,500 yuan/ton and the centralized listing of machine - picked cotton later [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - Price Range Forecast: The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,500 - 14,200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0882 and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.2287 [3]. - Inventory Management Strategy: For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 14,000 - 14,200 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF601C14200) at 200 - 250 with a 75% hedging ratio to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3]. - Procurement Management Strategy: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,300 - 13,500 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (CF601P13400) at 300 - 350 with a 50% hedging ratio to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price drops [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions The low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but the poor downstream spinning profit limits the acceptance of high - priced cotton. The new - season Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a bumper harvest, and there is large hedging pressure on cotton prices before the new cotton is listed. The overall trend is stable but weak, and attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 yuan/ton and the centralized listing of machine - picked cotton [4]. 3.3利多解读 - Inventory Reduction: Due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton this year, the downstream rigid consumption of cotton has increased, and the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly. As of September 15, the domestic industrial and commercial cotton inventory was 2.038 million tons, a decrease of 336,000 tons from the previous month [5]. - Retail Sales Growth: In August, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles reached 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a month - on - month increase of 8.74%. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream sales have improved month - on - month, and the finished - product inventory of yarn and cloth factories has further decreased [5]. 3.4利空解读 - Bumper Harvest Expectation: The growth of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast and in good condition. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, which will bring large hedging pressure on cotton prices [6]. - Export Decline: In August 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.539 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. Among them, clothing exports were 14.146 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.7%, with a relatively obvious decline [6]. 3.5 Market Quotes - Futures Prices: The closing prices of cotton 01, 05, and 09 were 13,540, 13,560, and 13,725 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 70, 55, and 80 yuan/ton and decline rates of 0.51%, 0.4%, and 0.58% respectively. The closing prices of棉纱 01, 05, and 09 were 19,635, 19,730, and 0 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 45, 19,730, and 19,990 yuan/ton and decline rates of 0.23%, 100%, and 100% respectively [7]. - Price Spreads: The cotton basis was 1,593 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 21 yuan. The spreads of cotton 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 were - 20, - 165, and 185 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 15, 25, and - 10 yuan. The cotton - yarn spread was 6,095 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 65 yuan. The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,940 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 45 yuan, and the domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 609 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 90 yuan [8]. - Price Indexes: The prices of CCI 3128B, CCI 2227B, and CCI 2129B were 15,133, 13,266, and 15,398 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 91, 81, and 99 yuan and decline rates of 0.6%, 0.61%, and 0.64% respectively. The prices of FCI Index S, FCI Index M, and FCI Index L were 13,494, 13,267, and 12,903 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 17 yuan and decline rates of 0.13% [9].
棉花产业?险管理?报：采棉集中上市情况
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-23 09:27