铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250923

Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 23, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the iron alloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disturbances, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the iron alloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - related supply contractions and inventory reductions, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and inventory increases in some products [7][8][9] Summary by Directory Iron Alloy Price Forecast and Hedging - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range forecast for silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.68% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.5%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a volatility of 12.10% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.9% [3] - Hedging Strategies: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - High Supply and Weak Demand: Although production profits initially declined in early September, they have now recovered, and production remains at a high level. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and there may be a situation of "peak season without prosperity" [4] - Cost Support: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/kWh, and the silicon - iron spot price in some areas is lower than the cost price, forming a cost - bottom expectation. There are rumors of a possible reduction in Gabon's manganese ore shipments in October, but currently, the supply is relatively sufficient [4] - Term Structure and Capital: The term structure of iron alloy has improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal has not improved, and the contango has deepened. Meanwhile, the iron alloy's open interest has been declining for two consecutive weeks [4] - Anti - Involution Expectations: There are still expectations of supply - side contractions, but there is a lack of substantial actions, and there is a high risk of price surges followed by declines [5] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Silicon Iron: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces to 33000KVA. An important article in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine may help regulate the market. Silicon - iron enterprise inventory and total inventory have decreased, with a 9.3% and 0.53% month - on - month decline respectively [7] - Silicon Manganese: The government's strict control over high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. There are rumors of a reduction in Gabon's manganese ore shipments in October, which may affect the cost of manganese - silicon [7] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Silicon Iron: The silicon - iron enterprise operating rate remains high, while downstream demand is weak [8] - Silicon Manganese: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. Silicon - manganese enterprise inventory has increased by 19.24% month - on - month, and the total inventory has increased by 5.97% month - on - month. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon - manganese price has decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - Silicon Iron: On September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 82, with a daily increase of 118 and a weekly increase of 152. The silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased by 243 compared to the previous day [10] - Silicon Manganese: On September 22, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 210, with a daily increase of 94 and a weekly increase of 86. The silicon - manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 629 compared to the previous day [11] Graphical Data - The report includes graphs of the term structure spreads of silicon iron, silicon manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal graphs of market prices, basis, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese [12][15][25]