南华金属日报：强势拉涨，再创新高-20250923

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of precious metals continued to rise strongly on Monday and reached new highs. The decline of the US dollar index, the selling of US Treasury bonds, and the drop of Bitcoin reflect the erosion of the US dollar's credit and the security flaws of virtual currencies, increasing the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset. The Fed's monetary policy and the performance of the US stock market may increase the risk of a bubble in the US stock market or economic stagflation, further boosting the demand for gold as a hedge. The report suggests a long - term bullish outlook, and a short - term strong pattern for London gold and silver. It maintains the idea of buying on dips, but advises caution for existing long positions due to the approaching National Day holiday [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,781.2 per ounce, up 2.03%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $44.315 per ounce, up 3.17%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 846.5 yuan per gram, up 2.01%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 10,317 yuan per kilogram, up 3.81% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly cooled. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 75.3%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 13.8%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 52.7%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 32.5%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 6.01 tons to 1,000.57 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 163.76 tons to 15,368.9 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 10.8 tons to 1,148.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1,252.4 tons as of the week ending September 12 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. Key data to watch include the final value of the US Q2 GDP on Thursday night and the US August PCE data on Friday night. Regarding events, on Thursday at 20:20, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak; at 21:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the 4th annual meeting on the international role of the US dollar. On Friday at 01:00, Fed Governor Barr will speak on bank stress tests, and at 22:00, Fed Governor Bowman will speak [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Tables - Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices: SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 855.44 yuan per gram, up 3%; SGX gold TD is at 839.93 yuan per gram, up 1.69%; CME gold main contract is at $3,781.2 per ounce, up 1.66%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 10,349 yuan per kilogram, up 3.79%; SGX silver TD is at 10,275 yuan per kilogram, up 0.31%; CME silver main contract is at $44.315 per ounce, up 2.19%. SHFE - TD gold is at 6.57 yuan per gram, up 44.08%; SHFE - TD silver is at 74 yuan per kilogram, up 29.17%. CME gold - silver ratio is 85.3255, down 0.52% [6][7]. - Inventory and Holdings: SHFE gold inventory is 59,013 kilograms, up 2.76%; CME gold inventory is 1,234.2735 tons, up 0.56%; SHFE gold holdings are 260,256 lots, up 8.36%; SPDR gold holdings are 1,000.57 tons, up 0.6%. SHFE silver inventory is 1,148.624 tons, down 0.93%; CME silver inventory is 16,309.9981 tons, up 0.06%; SGX silver inventory is 1,252.41 tons, up 0.33%; SHFE silver holdings are 504,051 lots, up 16.15%; SLV silver holdings are 15,368.895541 tons, up 1.08% [18]. - Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview: The US dollar index is at 97.3263, down 0.33%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.1178, up 0.34%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 46,381.54 points, up 0.14%; WTI crude oil spot is at $62.28 per barrel, down 0.64%; LmeS copper 03 is at $10,002 per ton, up 0.06%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.15%, up 0.24%; the 10 - year US real interest rate is 1.78%, up 1.71%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread is 0.54%, down 5.26% [21].