山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for precious metals is oscillating with an upward bias, and the long - term trend is a step - by - step upward movement. This is due to short - term risk - aversion factors such as the phased achievement of trade agreements but renewed concerns about the Fed's independence, increased risk of stagflation in the US economy, and the start of the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East also support the safe - haven property of precious metals. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in October with a probability of around 90% and about 2 more cuts within the year. The CRB commodity index faces pressure in its rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals oscillated upward. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.99%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.78% [2]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - Data Summary: - Prices: International prices of Comex gold and London gold, as well as domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D, all showed increases. For example, the Comex gold main - contract closing price was $3719.40 per ounce, up 1.12% from the previous day [3]. - Basis, Spreads, and Ratios: The basis and spreads of gold showed different changes. The gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.77% compared to the previous day [3]. - Positions: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold main contract, and gold TD all increased to varying degrees. For example, the position of the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 8.36% from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: The LBMA inventory remained unchanged, the Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and the Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1.57% [3]. - Net Positions of Futures Companies: The net long positions of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai gold market showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 31.89% compared to the previous day [4]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. - Data Summary: - Prices: International prices of Comex silver and London silver, as well as domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D, showed increases. For example, the Comex silver main - contract closing price was $43.37 per ounce, up 3.00% from the previous day [7]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis and spreads of silver showed different changes. The spread between the Shanghai silver main contract and London silver decreased by 7.40% compared to the previous day [7]. - Positions: The positions of Comex silver, Shanghai silver main contract, and silver TD all increased to varying degrees. For example, the position of the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 0.93% from the previous day [7]. - Inventory: The visible inventory of silver decreased by 0.20% compared to the previous day [7]. - Net Positions of Futures Companies: The net long positions of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai silver market decreased, and the net short positions also showed different changes [8]. Fundamental Key Data - Fed - Related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets increased by 0.00% [9]. - Inflation and Economic Growth Data: The year - on - year CPI increased by 0.20 percentage points, and the GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points [11]. - Interest Rate Spread and Yield Data: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 3.02%, and the US - Europe interest rate spread (10 - year bond yield) increased by 1.37% [9][11]. - Other Data: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index increased by 4.21%, the CRB commodity index decreased by 0.41%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.02% [12]. - Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations: The probability of different interest - rate ranges at different Fed meetings is provided, showing a trend of possible interest - rate cuts in the future [13].