有色震荡下行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Copper: The copper price fluctuated downward today, with the main contract price breaking below the 80,000 mark and the trading volume slightly decreasing. On the macro - level, the domestic market was weak, with both commodities and stock indices showing a downward trend. On the industrial level, the sharp decline in copper price and pre - holiday restocking demand are expected to increase industrial restocking willingness, which will support the copper price. However, the spot premium is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and there is no sign of inventory depletion. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [5]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price oscillated weakly today, and the trading volume continued to decline. The domestic market was weak on the macro - level, with commodities and stock indices trending down. On the industrial level, the aluminum price remained high in September, leading to weak restocking willingness among downstream enterprises. As the futures price declined, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [6]. - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated downward today, and the trading volume increased slightly. The domestic market was weak on the macro - level, with commodities and stock indices showing a downward trend. On the industrial level, the nickel price oscillated during the day, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average, with downstream enterprises mainly purchasing as needed. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 mark [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: In August 2025, China's total export volume of wire and cable was 261,000 tons, including 123,400 tons of copper wire and cable. In September, due to the resilient overseas demand for copper wire and cable, the export volume is expected to remain at a high level. The export performance to major destinations was divergent, with a 49.7% month - on - month decline in exports to the Philippines, a 57.7% month - on - month increase to Indonesia due to major projects, and a 26.11% month - on - month decline to the US due to tariff hikes [9]. - Aluminum: In August 2025, China's aluminum foil export volume was 107,000 tons, a 2% month - on - month and 24% year - on - year decline, with the year - on - year decline exceeding 20% for three consecutive months. The export volume of aluminum sheets and strips was 265,000 tons, a 2% month - on - month increase and a 10% year - on - year decrease [10]. - Nickel: On September 23, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,950 yuan/ton, a 750 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - Aluminum: The report presents charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - Nickel: The report shows charts of nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][40].