Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply-demand loosening logic continues. Although the futures price has support, there is no obvious upward driving force in the market. Attention should be paid to the progress and concentration of pre-holiday stocking [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened lower and moved higher, closing flat within the day. The spot market remains weak, with limited improvement in trading after low-price order absorption, and there is still pressure to lower prices to attract orders. The daily urea production has risen to over 190,000 tons, and the high production is suppressing the urea price. The downstream is stocking up before the double festivals, mainly buying at low prices. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased, but the growth rate has slowed down. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory of finished products in factories is high. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is significantly higher than the same period in previous years [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,655 yuan/ton, opened lower and moved higher, closing flat within the day, and finally closed at 1,658 yuan/ton, up 0.00%. The trading volume was 304,900 lots, a decrease of 2,508 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions decreased by 3,030 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,876 lots. Some futures companies had net long or net short positions changes [2] - Spot: The spot market remains weak. The ex-factory transaction price range of small-grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,560 and 1,600 yuan/ton. Some factories in Hebei have higher quotes and are mainly fulfilling export orders [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation declined, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at -38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [9] - Supply Data: On September 23, 2025, the national daily urea production was 201,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.93% [11] Warehouse Receipt Data - On September 23, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,535, remaining unchanged compared to the previous trading day [3]
冠通研究：暂无明显驱动
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-09-23 10:00