银河期货航运日报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot freight rate in the container shipping market remains weak, with a divergence expected in the second half of October. Traders are advised to take a long - position approach for the EC2512 contract and a short - position approach for the EC2510 contract [4][6]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the large - vessel market is expected to enter a decline channel from mid - October, while the medium - vessel market is under pressure in the short term [17]. - The tanker shipping market is generally stable, with the crude oil market showing a preference for Suez - type vessels, and the product oil market having significant regional differences in freight rates [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The spot freight rate is on a rapid decline, but the decline rate is expected to slow in the second half of October. There is an expectation of rate hikes in the first half of October after the holiday. The EC2512 closed at 1623.4 points on September 23, down 1.84% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line reported $1052/TEU on September 19, down 8.84% month - on - month, and the latest SCFIS European Line reported 1254.92 points, down 12.87% month - on - month [4]. - Some shipping companies have started to adjust their October freight rates. The demand for peak - season cargo has declined from its peak, and the loading rate of mainstream shipping companies has dropped. The weekly average capacity in September, October, and November 2025 is 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively, with a slight decrease in October and an increase in September and November compared to the previous week. The blank - sailing rate in October is about 15.56% [5]. - Trading strategies include taking profit on short positions of EC2510 at low prices, taking a long - position approach for the EC2512 contract, conducting a reverse spread operation for the 10 - 12 spread at low prices, and entering a long - position for the 2 - 4 spread at low prices [6][7]. Industry News - The Fed's Bostic and Musalem believe there is limited room for further interest rate cuts, and if inflation risks increase, they will not support further cuts [7]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's consumer confidence index in September is - 14.9, better than expected [8]. - As of the end of August 2025, there are 534 container ship orders that can use alternative fuels, accounting for 53% of the total number of ordered ships and 77% of the total capacity (TEU) [8]. - Shenzhen Maritime Department has implemented a management measure of "only departure, no entry" for large container liners since 2:00 on September 22 [8]. - Shanghai Port Energy will provide biomass methanol fueling services for CMA CGM's methanol - powered ships during their berthing and cargo handling at Shanghai Port [8]. - The Israeli - Palestinian conflict situation continues, with Israel intensifying its actions in the Gaza Strip, and multiple countries recognizing the State of Palestine [9]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index dropped slightly on Monday, with almost all types of ship freight indices falling. The BDI decreased by 31 points or 1.41% to 2172 points. The Capesize ship freight index dropped by 72 points or 2.1% to 3365 points, and the Panamax ship freight index dropped by 23 points or 1.3% to 1822 points [13]. - On September 22, the freight rate for the Capesize ship's iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $24.85/ton, up 0.30% month - on - month, and from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.78/ton, down 1.51% month - on - month. As of September 19, the weekly freight rate for the Capesize ship's coal route from Hay Point, Australia to Qingdao was $13.00/ton, up 7.44% week - on - week [14]. - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.248 million tons, a decrease of 2.483 million tons month - on - month. Brazil's soybean, corn, and soybean meal exports in September are expected to increase [15]. - Guinea's Nimba Mining SA has a strengthening expectation of resuming production, which may bring incremental transportation demand to the large - vessel Atlantic market [16]. - The large - vessel market is expected to enter a decline channel from mid - October, and the medium - vessel market is under pressure in the short term due to weakening transportation demand [17]. Industry News - Argentina has temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, their derivatives, corn, and wheat from September 22 to October 31 or until exports reach $7 billion [18]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a work plan for the stable growth of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, with an average annual growth target of about 4% for the added value of the steel industry [20]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - On September 22, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1128, down 1.31% month - on - month and up 30.40% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 620, up 0.32% month - on - month and up 6.53% year - on - year. The tanker shipping market is generally stable, with the crude oil market preferring Suez - type vessels, and the product oil market having significant regional differences in freight rates [21]. Industry News - Kuwait will increase its oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day in October [22]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil production decreased by 551,000 barrels per day in July to 9.201 million barrels per day [22]. - Saudi Arabia's new defense agreement with Pakistan is unlikely to change its energy relationship with India [22]. Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of shipping indices such as SCFIS, SCFI, BDI, BPI, BCI, BSI, BDTI, BCTI, as well as the basis of EC10 and EC12 contracts, and the long - term average earnings and TCE of three major types of crude oil tankers [25][34][43]