Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Pig Daily Report - September 23, 2025" [2] - Report Type: Agricultural Product R & D Report by Commodity Research Institute [1][5][8] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure in the live - pig market remains high, and the subsequent spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak, and the pig price is still under pressure due to large出栏 volume [3][4][6] - The downward pressure on live - pig futures prices continues to increase. The futures market reflects the supply pressure significantly, and the futures prices are expected to decline further, but the overall decline is limited due to the relatively low price level [6] Group 4: Price Data Summary Spot Prices - The average spot price of live pigs today is 12.38 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from yesterday. Most regions saw price drops, such as Zhejiang with a 0.10 - yuan/kg decline [4] Futures Prices - All major futures contracts except LH09 declined. For example, LH01 dropped 130 points to 13215 [4] Sow/Piglet Prices - The piglet price this week is 236 yuan, down 22 yuan from last week, while the sow price remains unchanged at 1588 yuan [4] Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 spread decreased by 220 to 1120, and LH9 - 1 spread increased by 130 to - 615 [4] Slaughter - end Data - The slaughter volume increased by 745 to 153993 heads [4] Size Pig Price Spreads - The spread between large - and medium - sized pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.01 to 0.14, and the spread between large pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.02 to 0.26 [4] Group 5: Market Analysis and Outlook Spot Market - The scale enterprises' live - pig出栏 volume remains high, and ordinary farmers are also actively selling. The secondary - fattening inventory has decreased, but new entrants are increasing. The high出栏 weight and large inventory indicate that the supply pressure will continue, and the spot price will likely remain weak [4][6] Futures Market - The futures market reflects the supply pressure. The near - month contracts have fallen deeply, affecting the far - month contracts. The far - month contracts depend on capacity changes, and there are limited bullish factors. The overall decline of the futures price is restricted due to the low price level [6] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, short - sell near - month contracts on price rebounds [7] - For arbitrage, conduct LH15 reverse arbitrage [7] - For options, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [7]
生猪日报：出栏压力维持高位，现货继续回落-20250923
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-23 10:50