信用债周报：收益率多数上行，债券购回业务有助于平抑波动-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the period from September 15 to September 21, the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors mostly increased, with an overall change range of -5 BP to 5 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, while corporate bonds remained at zero issuance, and the issuance amounts of other varieties increased. The net financing of credit bonds increased month - on - month, with an increase in the net financing of corporate bonds and commercial paper, and a decrease in the net financing of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes. The trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market increased month - on - month, and the yields of most credit bonds rose. Credit spreads showed a differentiated trend, with short - to - medium - term spreads narrowing and long - term spreads widening. [1][61] - On September 19, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges issued a notice to optimize bond repurchase business. When the closing price of corporate bonds drops by 5% compared to the 20th trading day before, the repurchaser can repurchase bonds to stabilize market fluctuations. [2][64] - The central and local governments are actively optimizing real estate policies, which are playing a positive role in stabilizing the real estate market. For real estate bonds, investors with high - risk tolerance can consider early layout, focusing on high - quality bonds of central and state - owned enterprises and some high - quality private enterprises. [2][65][66] - Against the background of stable growth and prevention of systemic risks, the probability of urban investment bond defaults is low, and they can still be a key allocation variety. However, during the process of local financing platform clearance and transformation, some urban investment bonds may face valuation fluctuations. [3][66] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First - level Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From September 15 to September 21, a total of 407 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 326.433 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 25.20%. The net financing of credit bonds was 88.638 billion yuan, an increase of 17.911 billion yuan month - on - month. [12] - Corporate bonds remained at zero issuance, with a net financing of - 4.241 billion yuan, an increase of 2.288 billion yuan month - on - month. The issuance amount of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes increased, but the net financing of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes decreased. [12] 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors mostly increased, with an overall change range of -5 BP to 5 BP. The rate changes varied by term and rating. [14] 3.2 Second - level Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - From September 15 to September 21, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 896.955 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 22.76%. The trading volumes of all varieties increased. [17] 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, the credit spreads showed a differentiated trend, with 1 - year and 3 - year spreads narrowing and 5 - year and 7 - year spreads widening. [20][28][38] 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA+ medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed, while the 5Y - 3Y and 7Y - 3Y spreads widened. For rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) and (AA)-(AAA) spreads remained unchanged, and the (AA+)-(AAA) spread narrowed. [45] - For AA+ corporate bonds, the 3Y - 1Y, 5Y - 3Y, and 7Y - 3Y term spreads widened. For rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) and (AA)-(AAA) spreads widened, and the (AA+)-(AAA) spread remained unchanged. [50] - For AA+ urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed, while the 5Y - 3Y and 7Y - 3Y spreads widened. For rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) and (AA)-(AAA) spreads widened, and the (AA+)-(AAA) spread remained unchanged. [53] 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustments and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From September 15 to September 21, the rating of one company was downgraded. [57] 3.3.2 Default and Extension Bond Statistics - Wuhan Contemporary Science & Technology Investment Co., Ltd.'s credit bond "H20 Technology 4" defaulted, with a default balance of 650 million yuan. There were no credit bond extensions during this period. [59][60] 3.4 Investment Views - In terms of absolute returns, the supply shortage and strong allocation demand support the strength of credit bonds. Although fluctuations are inevitable, the conditions for a full - scale bear market in credit bonds are still insufficient. In the long run, yields will enter a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments is still feasible. [1][61] - In terms of relative returns, due to the low historical levels of rating spreads, credit risk - taking is not effective at present. High - grade long - term bonds have certain advantages, and the duration can be appropriately extended, but the rhythm needs to be grasped. [1][61] - For real estate bonds, with the market gradually stabilizing, investors with high - risk tolerance can consider early layout, focusing on high - quality bonds of central and state - owned enterprises and some high - quality private enterprises. [2][66] - For urban investment bonds, they can be a key allocation variety, but attention should be paid to the valuation fluctuations during the clearance and transformation of local financing platforms. [3][66]