Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Argentina's temporary cancellation of agricultural export taxes will lead to a significant short - term increase in the export of soybean and related products, likely alleviating the previously worried tight supply situation in the Chinese market in Q1 2026 [7][10] - If China does not purchase US soybeans, the US soybean export demand will be impacted, and the overall oil and oilseed prices may face downward pressure [9][10] - It is advisable to be cautious about the subsequent basis pressure of domestic soybean oil and soybean meal, and domestic oils are expected to be stronger than meals, with palm oil stronger than soybean oil [10] - The export of Argentine soybeans and related products will squeeze the US soybean export market, and the US soybean price may test a short - term low [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Argentina's Reason for Temporary Cancellation of Agricultural Product Export Taxes - After the political setback of President Milei's party in the local elections in Buenos Aires Province in early September, the Argentine peso exchange rate plummeted. To attract dollars and increase the supply of dollars in the domestic market to ease the depreciation pressure of the peso, the government decided to cancel the export tax on soybeans and their products from September 22 to October 31 [1] Assessment of China's Soybean Supply Situation - As of the week of September 10, 2025, Argentina's 24/25 annual soybean cumulative sales volume was 31.89 million tons, accounting for 62.6% of the expected output of 50.9 million tons, with 19.01 million tons unsold. The short - term supply of soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal in the international market is expected to increase [3] - From January to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative soybean crushing volume was 23.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons (1.5%). Based on the estimated monthly crushing volume of 3.8 million tons from September to December, the remaining exportable volume is about 3.8 million tons [3] - The USDA estimates Brazil's 24/25 annual soybean output at 169 million tons. From January to July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean crushing volume decreased by 1.45 million tons (4.5%) year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 1.81 million tons (2.4%) year - on - year. The remaining exportable volume is about 20 million tons [4] - From January to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative soybean export volume was 3.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons (5.5%). After the cancellation of the export tax, the total soybean export volume is expected to increase. It is assumed that the export volume will reach 3.8 million tons in October, and about 90% will be exported to China [4] - Considering the 2 - month shipping time from Brazil and Argentina to China, the monthly average arrival volume in Q4 2025 is expected to be 8.5 - 9 million tons, and in Q1 2026, it is expected to be 3.5 - 4 million tons. Even without purchasing US soybeans, China's soybean supply gap in Q1 2026 is likely to disappear [7] China's Non - Purchase of New US Soybean Crops - The USDA estimates the US 25/26 annual soybean output at 117 million tons, with an expected export volume of 45.85 million tons (39% of the output). Historically, nearly half of US soybean exports went to China. As of September 11, China's purchase volume of US soybeans was zero. If China does not purchase, the US soybean export demand will be affected, and the inventory pressure will increase, leading to a short - term downward pressure on prices [9]
阿根廷临时取消农产品出口关税的影响评估
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-23 11:17