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市场主流观点汇总-20250923
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-23 11:17

Report Summary 1. Market Data - As of September 19, 2025, the closing prices of various assets are provided, including commodities (e.g., coking coal at 1232.00, glass at 1216.00), A-shares (e.g., CSI 500 at 7170.35, SSE 50 at 2909.74), overseas stocks (e.g., Nasdaq at 22631.48, S&P 500 at 6664.36), bonds (e.g., 2-year Chinese Treasury bond yield at 1.48), and foreign exchange (e.g., USD-CNY central parity rate at 7.11) [1] - The weekly changes show that commodities rose by 0.32%, A-shares fell by 0.44%, overseas stocks fell by 1.98%, bonds had various yield changes, and foreign exchange also had corresponding fluctuations [1] 2. Commodity Views Macro - Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Smooth first - round Sino - US negotiations, policies to boost consumption, increased A - share trading volume, increased margin trading balance, and positive Shanghai real estate policies [3] - Bearish logic: Market already priced in rate - cut expectations, large - financial stocks' decline, regulatory intention to cool the market, approaching National Day holiday, and reduced ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 [3] - Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, central bank's liquidity injection, and long - term fundamental support for the bond market [3] - Bearish logic: Expectations for Q4 growth - stabilizing policies, high risk - appetite, and poor result of 30 - year special Treasury bond issuance [3] Energy Sector - Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 2 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Potential inflation in the far - term, Russian supply disruption, Asian demand, undervalued price, and Fed's expected rate cuts [4] - Bearish logic: Seasonal decline in European and American demand, OPEC's Q4 production increase, increased US distillate inventory, and US refinery maintenance [4] Agricultural Sector - Soybean Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Lower - than - expected US soybean good - quality rate, biodiesel policy, expected decline in October soybean imports, and Sino - US trade uncertainty [4] - Bearish logic: Argentina's export tax suspension, South American soybean sowing, high domestic inventory, inventory accumulation, and expected high US soybean yield [4] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - Aluminum - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Fed's rate - cut cycle, improved downstream consumption after price decline, pre - holiday stocking demand, and entry into the traditional peak demand season [5] - Bearish logic: Neutral Fed stance, continuous inventory accumulation, weak peak - season characteristics, and slow inventory depletion [5] Chemical Sector - Methanol - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Iranian plant shutdown, improved MTO profit, reduced port pressure, and macro - policy support [5] - Bearish logic: High coastal inventory, strong supply pressure, and weak pre - holiday stocking demand [5] Precious Metals Sector - Gold - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Strong central bank demand, US stagflation risk, Fed's rate - cut cycle, and increased ETF holdings [6] - Bearish logic: Short - term profit - taking after rate - cut, rebound of the US dollar index and Treasury yields, and potential slowdown of rate - cut [6] Black Metals Sector - Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Decreased port inventory, pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, reduced arrivals, and increased molten iron production [6] - Bearish logic: Increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, weak steel demand, increased shipments from non - mainstream countries, and declining steel mill profitability [6]