Report Summary 1. Overall Information - Report Title: Galaxies Non - ferrous Metals R & D Report - Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Daily Morning Observation - Date: September 23, 2025 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The precious metals market shows strong upward momentum, with gold hitting a new high and silver reaching its highest level since May 2011. The market is influenced by factors such as Fed interest rate expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation concerns [2]. - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals. Although there is potential for further interest rate cuts, there are differences among policymakers. Supply is tight, and consumption shows a "peak season is not prosperous" situation [6][8]. - The alumina market has a weak fundamental trend, with domestic and foreign spot prices falling in resonance, and the import window opening slightly [11][13]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a positive market expectation, with alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [16][18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by Fed interest rate policies and domestic downstream demand. After the price correction, attention should be paid to the downstream stocking sentiment before the holidays [21][23]. - The zinc market has support at the bottom in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, mainly due to the potential reduction in domestic supply and the downstream pre - holiday stocking demand [25][26]. - The lead market has a situation where long and short factors are intertwined, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [29][31]. - The nickel market maintains a wide - range oscillatory trend, with supply increasing faster than demand, and the price is affected by factors such as news from Indonesia and the Philippines [33][36]. - The stainless steel market is expected to remain oscillatory, with supply pressure above and support below due to factors such as production scheduling, inventory, and cost [39][42]. - The industrial silicon market may continue to correct in the short term, and the impact of polysilicon production scheduling and market sentiment on the price is greater [44][46]. - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward trend in spot prices, and the best strategy is to wait for the price to correct sufficiently before going long [48][50]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong in the short term, with supply and demand both being strong [52][55]. - The tin market is expected to remain oscillatory at a high level, with tight supply at the mine end and weak demand [57][60]. 4. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - Market Review - Gold: London gold rose by over $60 during the day, hitting a new high of over $3740, and finally closed up 1.67% at $3746.63 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 1.46% to 850.98 yuan per gram [2]. - Silver: London silver reached its highest level since May 2011, closing up 2.38% at $44.02 per ounce. Shanghai silver futures rose 1.77% to 10348 yuan per kilogram [2]. - Dollar Index: It first rose and then fell, ending a three - day winning streak, closing down 0.38% at 97.30 [2]. - US Treasury Yield: The 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound, closing at 4.151% [2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: It fluctuated within a narrow range, closing down 0.07% at 7.1138 [2]. - Important Information - Fed officials' views are divided on further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 75.3% [2]. - Logic Analysis - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps last week, the expectation of two more cuts this year remains high. The risk of stagflation in the US still exists, and geopolitical conflicts occasionally emerge, driving gold prices higher. Silver shows greater upward elasticity [2]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Continue the low - buying idea. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Collar call options [4]. Copper - Market Review - Futures: The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 80100 yuan per ton, down 0.02%. The Shanghai copper index decreased by 6971 lots to 470,600 lots. LME copper closed at $10002 per ton, up 0.06% [6]. - Spot: LME inventory decreased by 2275 tons to 145,300 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1511 tons to 318,200 tons [6]. - Important Information - Sino - US leaders' phone call improved market sentiment. Fed officials have different views on further interest rate cuts. Argentina plans to develop copper resources [6][8]. - Logic Analysis - Macro - factors are positive, but there are differences among policymakers on interest rate cuts. Supply is tight due to production accidents and other reasons, and consumption is weak [8]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The copper price may consolidate at a high level in the short term. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [9]. Alumina - Market Review - Futures: The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2906 yuan per ton [11]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased, with the national weighted index down 1.2 yuan to 3009 yuan [11]. - Important Information - Xinjiang's alumina spot tender price decreased. The operating capacity increased slightly. Australian alumina prices decreased, and China's alumina import and export data changed [11][13]. - Logic Analysis - Domestic and foreign spot prices are falling, the import window is slightly open, and the fundamentals are weak [13]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The alumina price is expected to be weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Review - Futures: The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 20265 yuan per ton [16]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased by 100 yuan per ton [16]. - Important Information - Policies affect the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in some regions changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. - Logic Analysis - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday. The downstream production rate is rising, and the market expectation is positive [18]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: After the aluminum alloy futures price pulls back from a high level, pay attention to the rebound opportunity supported by fundamentals. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review - Futures: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 55 yuan to 20715 yuan per ton [21]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased [21]. - Important Information - Sino - US leaders' phone call. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project is progressing as planned, and China's aluminum export data changed [21][23]. - Logic Analysis - The Fed is cautious about further interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking sentiment before the holidays [23]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: After the aluminum price pulls back, pay attention to the opportunity of stabilizing and rebounding. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [23]. Zinc - Market Review - Futures: LME zinc rose 0.05% to $2900 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2511 rose 0.18% to 22035 yuan per ton. The Shanghai zinc index decreased by 1558 lots to 238,500 lots [25]. - Spot: The spot price in Shanghai increased slightly, and the downstream buying sentiment was strong [25]. - Important Information - The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the import data of zinc concentrate and refined zinc changed [25][26]. - Logic Analysis - Domestic supply may decrease slightly, and downstream pre - holiday stocking demand exists. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [26]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The zinc price may fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Lead - Market Review - Futures: LME lead fell 0.17% to $1999.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2511 rose 0.03% to 17165 yuan per ton. The Shanghai lead index increased by 862 lots to 101,800 lots [29]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead was flat. The trading volume was limited due to limited supply and high prices of recycled refined lead [29]. - Important Information - The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and the import data of lead concentrate and lead - acid batteries changed [29][31]. - Logic Analysis - Supply may increase as some smelters plan to resume production, and downstream enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [31]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The lead price may remain volatile at a high level in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34][32]. Nickel - Market Review - Futures: LME nickel fell $70 to $15200 per ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2511 fell 220 yuan to 121410 yuan per ton. The index position increased by 1326 lots [33]. - Spot: The premiums of different nickel products were flat [33]. - Important Information - Rumors about an Indonesian mining company were refuted. The Democratic Republic of the Congo may extend the cobalt export ban [33][36]. - Logic Analysis - The nickel price pulled back with the weak commodity market. Supply is increasing faster than demand, and the price is affected by news from Indonesia and the Philippines [36]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel - Market Review - Futures: The main SS2511 contract rose 25 yuan to 12935 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased by 1804 lots [39]. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [41]. - Important Information - US import tariffs affect the stainless steel market. Taiwan's imports from Vietnam decreased. China's stainless steel consumption increased [41]. - Logic Analysis - Production scheduling has increased, but demand has not shown seasonal strength. The price is expected to remain oscillatory [42]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [42]. Industrial Silicon - Market Review - Futures: The main industrial silicon futures contract decreased by 0.83% to 8950 yuan per ton, with significant position reduction [44]. - Spot: The spot price increased by 100 - 150 yuan per ton [44]. - Important Information - Yunnan silicon plants plan to reduce production due to electricity price increases. The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle" [46]. - Logic Analysis - The inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The impact of polysilicon production scheduling and market sentiment on the price is greater [46]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Participate after the price stabilizes from the correction. - Options: Look for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [46]. Polysilicon - Market Review - Futures: The main polysilicon futures contract decreased by 3.63% to 50990 yuan per ton, with position increase [48]. - Spot: The spot price was stable [48]. - Important Information - Spain's self - use photovoltaic installation capacity has declined for three consecutive years [48]. - Logic Analysis - The spot price is likely to rise in the long term. There are short - term negative factors for futures, and the best strategy is to go long after the price correction [50]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Go long after the price corrects sufficiently. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: None [50]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review - Futures: The main 2511 contract decreased by 140 yuan to 73480 yuan per ton. The position and warehouse receipts decreased [52]. - Spot: The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased [52]. - Important Information - Canada's renewable energy market has great potential, and China's lithium - ion battery export data increased [52][55]. - Logic Analysis - The price pulled back due to the weak commodity market. Supply growth is limited, and demand is strong. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong [55]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillatory and slightly strong. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - Market Review - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract decreased by 0.28% to 270610 yuan per ton, and the position increased by 263 lots [57]. - Spot: The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased [57]. - Important Information - Sino - US relations and Fed officials' views. An Indonesian tin company expects to achieve its production target [57][59]. - Logic Analysis - Supply at the mine end is tight, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's复产 and electronic consumption recovery [60]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Remain oscillatory at a high level. - Options: Wait and see [61].
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250923
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-23 11:24