银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250923

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an egg daily report released on September 23, 2025, by researcher Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3362, down 4 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3395, down 37; JD09 closed at 3120, down 73 [3] - The 01 - 05 spread was -33, up 33; the 05 - 09 spread was 275, up 36; the 09 - 01 spread was -242, down 69 [3] - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, unchanged; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.15, up 0.04 [3] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - The average price of eliminated chickens was 4.55 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was 30.54 yuan, down 0.36 from the previous day [3] - The average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 [3] - The average price of corn was 2358 yuan, down 2; the average price of bean meal was 3038 yuan, up 26 [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, up 0.16 from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.81 yuan/jin, up 0.23 [6] - In August, the national laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 90 million from the previous month and 5.9% year - on - year [7] - In August, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 39.81 million, a decrease of 0.1% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year [7] - From September to December 2025, the estimated laying hen inventory is 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [7] - From September 11 - 18, the national main production area's eliminated chicken出栏量 was 17.61 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week [7] - As of September 18, the average age of eliminated chickens was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [7] - As of September 18, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7685 tons, an increase of 5.2% from the previous week [8] - As of September 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days [8] - As of September 18, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.3 yuan/jin; the expected profit of laying hen farming was 2.97 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/jin [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - High inventory, low cost, and weak demand have led egg prices to the lowest level in recent years [9] - The recent egg price rebound is mainly due to the double - festival stocking, but as the stocking ends, egg prices are starting to fall [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The short - term downward space may be limited, and it is recommended to choose the right opportunity [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10]