银河期货农产品日报-20250923

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The quality of early - maturing apples is poor, and it is speculated that the high - quality fruit rate of Fuji apples will also be poor. Considering the continuous rainfall in the western producing areas, the quality may be affected. However, as the current price is not low, the price of apples is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. - For trading strategies, new - season apples may have a low high - quality fruit rate, but the current price is not low, so the short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [9]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index was 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, and Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 6.95, up 0.10 [3]. - Futures Prices: AP01 was 8288, down 3 from the previous close; AP05 was 8203, down 16; AP10 was 8486, up 31. The spreads between different contracts also changed, with AP01 - AP05 up 13, AP05 - AP10 down 47, and AP10 - AP01 up 34 [3]. - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01 was - 688, up 3; against AP05 was - 603, up 16; against AP10 was - 886.0, down 31 [3]. Market News and Views - Apple Market News - As of September 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 27.35 tons, a decrease of 6.62 tons from the previous week. The inventory turnover speed increased slightly due to the limited supply of early - maturing Fuji apples in the west [6]. - In July 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 5.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.95%. The import volume was 1.77 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.73% and a year - on - year increase of 8.47%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 8.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.76%. The impact of imports on the domestic market was limited [6]. - The apple market in the producing areas was generally stable. Cold - storage goods were in high demand during the Mid - Autumn Festival, and the Red General apples had sufficient supply but a shortage of high - quality goods. The purchase price of pre - harvest apples in the northwest was high, and the market arrival volume was stable with stable transaction prices [6]. - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7]. - The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The price of 80 above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples was 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty, and the striped ones were 3.0 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The price of third - grade fruit was 2.5 - 2.6 yuan per catty, and the unified - grade goods were 2.8 - 3.0 yuan per catty. The Red General apples had a poor color and quality, with a transaction price of 1.5 - 1.6 yuan per catty [7]. - Trading Logic: The poor high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples implies a possible low high - quality fruit rate for Fuji apples. The continuous rainfall in the western producing areas may affect the quality. However, due to the current high price, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New - season apples may have a low high - quality fruit rate, but the current price is not low, so the short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, the spreads between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets, the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples in China, and the cold - storage apple出库量 in China [13][15][23]. The data sources are mainly Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [15][17][23].