油料产业风险管理日报-20250923

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647), Jin Wandong (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03118199) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies Price Forecast - Monthly price range for soybean meal: 2800 - 3300 yuan, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.8%, and historical percentile (3 - year) is 3.8% [3] - Monthly price range for rapeseed meal: 2350 - 2750 yuan, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.6%, and historical percentile (3 - year) is 15.3% [3] Hedging Strategies - For traders with high protein inventory, to prevent losses from inventory and price decline, sell 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 yuan [3] - For feed mills with low inventory, to prevent cost increase from price rise, buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 yuan [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices, sell 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 yuan [3] Group 3: Core Contradictions Soybean Meal - Short - term: Argentina's export tax exemption policy has a negative impact on the market. Argentina's old - crop sales progress is about 60% - 70%, with a maximum exportable volume of 10 million tons to China. The policy may support domestic soybean meal cost by approaching Brazilian prices [4] - Long - term: Focus on the impact of Sino - US trade relations on soybean supply [4] Rapeseed Meal - Short - term: Follows soybean meal, but will be stronger than soybean products before November due to China's extension of anti - dumping investigation on Canada. After November, it will face the issue of Australian rapeseed arrivals, and inventory may increase by the end of the year [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Bullish Factors - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to supply - demand gap [7] - Brazil's export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [7] Bearish Factors - High inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, increasing oil mill crush volume, and seasonal inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal but is slightly stronger [4] - After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, leading to a dominant supply pressure narrative in the near - month market [5] Group 5: Futures Prices and Spreads Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01: Closing price is 2928 yuan, down 106 yuan (-3.49%) [8] - Soybean meal 05: Closing price is 2733 yuan, down 49 yuan (-1.76%) [8] - Soybean meal 09: Closing price is 2843 yuan, down 48 yuan (-1.66%) [8] - Rapeseed meal 01: Closing price is 2447 yuan, down 81 yuan (-3.2%) [8] - Rapeseed meal 05: Closing price is 2328 yuan, down 45 yuan (-1.9%) [8] - Rapeseed meal 09: Closing price is 2411 yuan, down 36 yuan (-1.47%) [8] - CBOT yellow soybeans: Closing price is 1011.25, unchanged [8] - Offshore RMB: Closing price is 7.1178, up 0.0241 (0.34%) [8] Spreads - M01 - 05 spread is 195 yuan, down 57 yuan; RM01 - 05 spread is 119 yuan, down 36 yuan [9] - M05 - 09 spread is - 110 yuan, down 1 yuan; RM05 - 09 spread is - 83 yuan, down 9 yuan [9] - M09 - 01 spread is - 85 yuan, up 58 yuan; RM09 - 01 spread is - 36 yuan, up 45 yuan [9] - Soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2930 yuan, down 50 yuan; basis is 2 yuan, up 56 yuan [9] - Rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2655 yuan, up 145 yuan; basis is 127 yuan, up 139 yuan [9] - Spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 275 yuan, down 50 yuan; futures price difference is 481 yuan, down 25 yuan [9] Group 6: Import Costs and Profits - US Gulf soybean import cost (23%): 4423.6298 yuan/ton, down 74.2222 yuan daily, up 0.0177 yuan weekly [10] - Brazilian soybean import cost: 3934.29 yuan/ton, down 11.28 yuan daily, down 121.95 yuan weekly [10] - Cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%): - 719.2894 yuan, up 9.2866 yuan daily, up 14.2315 yuan weekly [10] - US Gulf soybean import profit (23%): - 593.4053 yuan, down 74.2222 yuan daily, down 25.1891 yuan weekly [10] - Brazilian soybean import profit: 135.1432 yuan, up 45.0221 yuan daily, up 3.9232 yuan weekly [10] - Canadian rapeseed import profit (on - paper): 987 yuan, up 56 yuan daily, up 224 yuan weekly [10] - Canadian rapeseed import profit (spot): 1169 yuan, up 62 yuan daily, up 244 yuan weekly [10]