山金期货黑色板块日报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has an overall suppressive effect on raw material varieties and supports steel prices, but it falls short of previous expectations [2]. - The anti - involution policy for iron ore has been implemented, which is also below expectations and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - News: The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was jointly issued by relevant departments, affecting the market [2]. - Supply and Demand: Threaded steel production has declined for four consecutive weeks, with a rebound in apparent demand and a decrease in total inventory. The total production of five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. Apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, but the overall apparent demand in the peak consumption season is lower than expected, and total inventory is still increasing [2]. - Technical Analysis: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils rose and then fell, indicating significant resistance above [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Close long positions on rallies and then maintain a wait - and - see stance [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Policy Impact: The anti - involution policy has been implemented, which is below expectations and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. - Supply and Demand: Last week, the profitability of sample steel mills declined due to the sharp increase in coke prices and the decrease in steel prices. The iron ore supply is at a high level globally, and port inventories have not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak consumption season. Before the holiday, the replenishment demand of steel mills supports iron ore demand [4]. - Technical Analysis: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated upwards but then fell after reaching a high. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [4]. - Strategy and Operation Suggestions: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, patiently wait for a pull - back to go long, and be cautious about chasing high prices [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry in the next two years, with measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, and promotion of the transformation of steel enterprises [6]. - From September 15th to 21st, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the iron ore arrival volume in Chinese ports increased [6][7].