钢铁行业点评报告：稳增长工作方案发布钢铁受益于反内卷加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the steel industry [1]. Core Insights - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" has been released, aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% in the industry's added value over the next two years. This plan emphasizes "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition," guiding structural adjustments and high-quality development in the steel sector [12][14]. - The report highlights the acceleration of digital transformation in the steel industry, with significant investments in AI and digital technologies by leading companies, indicating a shift towards data-driven operations [27][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2021 Steel Supply-Side Capacity Regulation - In 2021, China's crude steel production fell to 1.035 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2.8%, due to stringent capacity control measures aimed at achieving carbon neutrality goals [4][8]. - The profitability of the steel industry improved significantly, with total profits in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry reaching 424.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.1% [9][10]. 2. Stable Growth Work Plan Released, Leaders Benefit from Production Regulation - The "Stable Growth Work Plan" sets a target for the steel industry's added value to grow by about 4% annually from 2025 to 2026, focusing on economic stability and balanced market supply and demand [12][14]. - The plan emphasizes precise control of capacity and production, promoting industry transformation and upgrading, which will benefit leading steel companies [15][16]. 3. Accelerated Digital Transformation, AI + Steel Gaining Momentum - The digital transformation in the steel industry is expected to significantly enhance overall digital levels by 2026, with a focus on integrating new information technologies [19][20]. - Leading companies like Baosteel and Shougang are actively pushing forward their AI and digital transformation initiatives, with Baosteel planning to implement over 300 AI application scenarios by 2025 [27][28]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Shougang, Hebei Steel, and CITIC Special Steel, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing capacity regulation and industry transformation [31].