公司点评 · 公用事业行业 短期业绩承压，静待绿色氢基能源业务放量 ——重要事项点评 2026 年 02 月 09 日 核心观点 电投绿能（股票代码：000875） 推荐 维持评级 分析师 陶贻功 ：010-80927673 ：taoyigong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030001 曾韬 3.【银河环保公用】公司点评_吉电股份：盈利能力 改善，绿氨项目投产在即 ：010-80927653 ：zengtao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525030001 研究助理：马敏 | ：mamin_yj@chinastock.com.cn | | --- | | 市场数据 | 2026 年 02 月 06 日 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 000875 | | A 股收盘价(元) | 6.81 | | 上证指数 | 4,065.58 | | 总股本(万股) | 362,727 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 334,240 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 228 | 相对沪深 300 表现图 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the building materials sector, including China Jushi, Huaxin Cement, and Dongfang Yuhong [5]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a transformation, with traditional categories weakening while price increases are leading the recovery [1]. - The demand for cement is expected to stabilize in the short term, with a potential rebound in March due to seasonal construction activities [4][15]. - The fiberglass sector is seeing price increases driven by high demand for electronic yarn, while the overall market remains tight [4][42]. - The consumer building materials market is shifting towards high-quality products, supported by urban renewal strategies and price increases from leading companies [4][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Transformation - The building materials industry plays a crucial role in supporting various sectors, including infrastructure and emerging industries [7]. - The industry is undergoing a transition towards high-quality development, with a focus on technological upgrades and sustainable practices [9]. 2. Traditional Materials Weakness and Price Increases - Cement demand is under pressure due to seasonal factors, with a decrease in total demand observed in January [15]. - The fiberglass market is experiencing stable prices for raw yarn, while electronic yarn prices are rising due to strong demand [42]. - Consumer building materials are seeing a shift towards high-quality products, with urban renewal driving demand [39]. 3. Market Confidence and Valuation Recovery - The building materials sector is witnessing a gradual recovery in valuations, supported by multiple favorable factors [4]. - The financial performance of the industry has improved, with significant cash flow recovery noted in the first three quarters [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - For cement, the report suggests focusing on leading companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics [4]. - In the fiberglass sector, companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material are highlighted for their strong earnings potential [4]. - The consumer building materials segment is recommended for investment, particularly companies with strong brand and distribution advantages [4].

核心观点 有色金属行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 华立 行业点评报告 · 有色金属行业 国储收铜凸显战略价值，为铜注入"安全溢价" 2026 年 02 月 04 日 ：021-20252629 ：huali@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130516080004 孙雪琪 ：021-20252048 ：sunxueqi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525040002 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 02 月 03 日 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 2025/2/5 2025/3/5 2025/4/5 2025/5/5 2025/6/5 2025/7/5 2025/8/5 2025/9/5 2025/10/5 2025/11/5 2025/12/5 2026/1/5 SW有色金属 沪深300 相关研究 1.【银河有色】行业周报_美联储新主席提名引发情 绪退潮，金属价格剧震 20260201 2.【银河有色】行业跟踪_有色金属行业 2025Q4 基 金持仓分析：主动类权益基金大幅增持有色行业 ...

公司点评 · 公用事业行业 煤价下行推动盈利提升,装机清洁化持续 大唐发电 2025年业绩预告点评 2026年02月03日 核心观点 | 主要财务指标预测 | | --- | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 123,474 | 120,736 | 125,337 | 126,754 | | 收入增长率 | 0.9% | -2.2% | 3.8% | 1.1% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 4,506 | 7,267 | 7,452 | 7,601 | | 利润增长率 | 229.7% | 61.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | | 分红率 | 25.5% | -32.0% | 1.2% | -1.8% | | 毛利率 | 14.9% | 18.8% | 18.4% | 18.4% | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.41 | | PE | 15.52 | 9.63 | 9.39 | 9.20 | | PB | 0.91 | 0.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the media and internet industry, particularly highlighting the growth potential driven by AI applications and content quality [1]. Core Insights - The media and internet industry index rose by 17.94% in January 2026, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.65% [6][8]. - The film industry experienced a significant decline in box office revenue, with January 2026 box office at 1.965 billion yuan, down 69.15% year-on-year and 47.08% month-on-month [16][18]. - The gaming industry saw record-high user revenue, with actual sales revenue reaching 350.789 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.68% [30][34]. - The advertising market grew by 5.4% year-on-year in 2025, with notable increases in sectors such as telecommunications and personal goods [16]. - AI applications are rapidly advancing, with companies like Zhihui and Minimax listing in Hong Kong, indicating a strong market interest in AI commercialization [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The media industry index showed a strong performance in January 2026, with all sub-sectors experiencing growth, particularly advertising marketing, which rose by 35.73% [7][8]. - The film industry is expected to see a rebound in February 2026 due to the release of new films during the Spring Festival [25][29]. - The gaming market continues to expand, with a user base of 683 million, marking a historical high [30][34]. Sub-industry Data Tracking Film Industry - January 2026 saw a total of 41 films released, with a box office champion being "Zootopia" at 423 million yuan, accounting for 21.5% of the total box office [16][26]. - The average ticket price in January 2026 was 38.84 yuan, down 17.45% year-on-year [18]. Gaming Industry - The domestic mobile gaming market generated 257.076 billion yuan in revenue in 2025, a 7.92% increase year-on-year [30][34]. - The number of approved domestic game licenses increased significantly, with 177 games approved in January 2026, indicating a stable supply for the market [42][44]. Advertising Industry - The advertising market's total expenditure increased by 5.4% in 2025, with significant growth in sectors like telecommunications and IT products [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the textile and apparel industry [3] Core Insights - Anta plans to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA SE for €1.5 billion, becoming the largest single shareholder, which is a strategic move to enhance its global presence and brand matrix [1][7] - PUMA is currently undergoing a "Reset" strategy, facing performance pressures with a 8.5% year-on-year revenue decline in the first three quarters of 2025, recording €5.974 billion in revenue and a net loss of €30.8 million [2][8] - The acquisition is expected to strengthen Anta's brand portfolio in the mid-to-high-end sports sector and enhance its competitive position against global brands like Nike and Adidas [8] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Anta's acquisition of PUMA SE is a significant step in expanding its global footprint and brand portfolio [7] - The acquisition is expected to create new growth opportunities through global resource integration and synergy [1][7] 2. Industry Key Data Review (a) Stock Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the textile and apparel industry declined by 0.68% [10] (b) Retail Performance - In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached ¥45,136 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [15] (c) Textile Exports - In December 2025, textile yarn, fabrics, and their products exported amounted to $12.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1% [19] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-growth outdoor segments, recommending companies like Anta Sports, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees [9] - For textile manufacturing, companies such as Huayi Group and Shenzhou International are highlighted [9]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to market volatility and a rebound in the US dollar[1] - Warsh's focus is on supply-side reforms, influenced by Friedman’s monetary theories, aiming to reduce the Fed's market impact through balance sheet reduction[1] - Despite expectations for a strong dollar, Warsh is anticipated to respond to Trump's calls for interest rate cuts[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - Domestic consumption shows stability, with metro passenger volume increasing by 1.3% year-on-year, but flight numbers and box office revenues are down by 1.4% and 13.5% respectively compared to last year[2] - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded a decline to 51.3%, indicating a pulse-like recovery influenced by the late Spring Festival and commodity price fluctuations[3] - CPI shows a mixed trend with vegetable prices dropping by 0.6% while egg prices rose by 3.2%[4] Group 3: External Economic Factors - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,200.5, reflecting a 1.3% increase year-on-year, indicating rising external demand[2] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.5% while Brent crude rose by 1.8%, driven by geopolitical tensions[6] - The US economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2.1% in Q1, with durable goods orders rising by 0.5% month-on-month, surpassing expectations[9]

宏观动态报告 为什么 PMI 波动较大？ ——2026 年 1 月 PMI 分析 2026 年 1 月 31 日 国家统计局 1 月 31 日发布数据：2026 年 1 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI） 为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为 48.8%（前值 52.8%）； 服务业商务活动指数为 49.5%（前值 49.7%）。 核心观点：PMI 指数在短暂回到扩张区间后，1 月再度回落至荣枯线以下。当前 PMI 所反映的复苏更多呈现出脉冲性和结构性特征，主要受春节较晚带来的时点错 位以及大宗商品价格阶段性走强的影响，而非内生需求持续修复的结果。一方面， 由于春节偏晚，企业在 12 月可能存在抢订单、抢生产的行为，以期在 2 月春节前 提前备货，从而对订单需求形成一定透支。随着前期订单逐步消化，生产指数虽仍 处于扩张区间，但已出现边际回落。另一方面，订单指数的大幅下滑仍表明当前经 济修复基础尚不稳固，需求端尤其是地产销售和汽车等耐用品消费等高频指标走 弱，显示内需恢复动能仍待巩固。同时，中小企业指数降幅显著高于大企业，也反 映出经济复苏过程中结构性分化依然较为明显。价格方面，出 ...

宏观专题报告 美联储将迎来供给侧改⾰者 !如何理解 Warsh（沃什）的货币政策框架？ 2026 年 1 ⽉ 31 ⽇ （ü）美联储资产负债表和 QE：Warsh 历来批评量化宽松（QE），但这不意味着他就 任后会⼤规模的对美联储持有的各种资 产进⾏缩 减。结合其对货币、财 政、通 胀 间关系 的理解来看，缩表的本质还是 为了更好的进⾏降 息， 并控制通胀预期。 （ß）货币与财政的关系：Warsh 认为财政部在尊重货币政策的前提 下应和美联储协 作，以清晰而审慎地向市场描述未来的资产负债表规模和所期望实现的⽬标。但同时， 美联储与财政部的合作也可能意味着，如果没有 Bessent 的 同意与配合，Warsh 也不 会开启⼤规模的量化紧缩。 （´）通 胀 ：对 于 Warsh 来说，" 通 胀 是 ⼀种选择"。其关于缩表的论述本质上是为了 通 过 控 制货币 数 量 和稳定通胀预期来 控 制通胀 ， 也 即缩表有利于通胀预期的稳定。 Warsh 并不会因为担忧近期的通胀⻛险而拒绝降 息， 他也表达过 在 AI 提升⽣ 产效率 的情况下，这类进步会在通胀稳定下⽀持更⾼的增⻓。 （Æ）⾦ 融 监 管 ：Warsh ...

308 中国银河证券ICGS 行业点评报告·公用事业行业 新能源装机创新高，用电量结构优化 2025年全年电力数据点评 2026年1月30日 分析师 ：010-80927656 ： : liangyounan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深300表现图 2026-1-30 比增长48.8%和17.0%，体现新增电量更多流向新场景、新服务。 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 【银河环保公用】行业点评_太阳能装机持续高增长， 水核发电量增速下降 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 事件：国家能源局和国家统计局发布了用电量数据以及能源生产情况：2025 公用事业 2025年末全国风电累计装机640.0GW，同比增长22.9%，全国太阳能累计装 机1201.7GW，同比增长35.5%；2025年全社会用电量103682亿千瓦时，同 推荐 维持评级 比增长5.0%；2025年规上工业发电量97159亿千瓦时，同比增长2.2%。 全年风光装机新增434GW并再创历史新高，预计"十五五"回归理性 2025 ...