冠通期货热点评论：供应过剩加剧，原油下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Recommend shorting on rallies [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand balance of crude oil has weakened, with supply increasing and demand facing uncertainties, so it is advisable to short on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side Factors - Iraq's Oil Ministry will restart the export of crude oil from the Kurdish region on Tuesday, which is expected to increase Iraq's crude oil exports by 300,000 - 400,000 barrels per day [1][2] - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. From October 2025, OPEC+ will implement a daily production adjustment of 137,000 barrels, and plans to continue to lift the voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day after lifting the first - layer additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day. In August, OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.4 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 509,000 barrels per day. Kpler expects OPEC+ maritime exports to increase by more than 1.1 million barrels per day in September [2] - Kuwait will increase its crude oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day from October, with a production capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day [2] - The United States' crude oil production is basically stable, and new production capacities in countries such as Brazil, Guyana, and Norway have been put into operation, leading to a continuous increase in crude oil supply [2] Demand - side Factors - The peak season for crude oil travel is basically over. The EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased by 9.285 million barrels unexpectedly, but refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly, and overall oil product inventories continue to rise. The U.S. refinery's operating rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points [3] - The weak U.S. non - farm payrolls data has raised concerns about crude oil demand [4] Other Factors - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its September meeting, but Powell is still cautious about further rate cuts, and the macro - situation is temporarily stable [4] - The EU has passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on shadow tankers and setting a crude oil price cap at $47.6 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and Russia's crude oil export situation [4] - Chinese independent refineries have reduced ESPO purchases due to uncertain quotas [4]