银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Short - term copper prices are under slight pressure due to macro factors, supply tightness, and weak terminal consumption. The cross - market long - position arbitrage should be continued, and options should be on hold [4][11]. - Alumina: Alumina prices are expected to run weakly. The domestic and international spot prices are falling in resonance, and the fundamentals are in a weak trend [13][14]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices are expected to remain weak in the short term until there is a significant improvement in consumption. Arbitrage and options should be on hold for now [19][22]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures is expected to run weakly following the aluminum price. Arbitrage and options should be on hold [26][29]. - Zinc: Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Overseas de - stocking may support zinc prices, but there is a risk of further decline if LME stocks increase significantly [32]. - Lead: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply may increase, and downstream enterprises may stock up before the holiday, resulting in a combination of long and short factors [37]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock. Although demand is in the peak season, supply is growing faster, and the net import in September is expected to decline [42]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Production has increased in September, but demand has not shown seasonal strength, and there is both supply pressure and cost support [49][51]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and demand is sluggish, but there are signs of short - term supply improvement [55]. - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices may continue to correct in the short term. The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on prices [63]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices are expected to rise after a sufficient correction. Although there is a risk of demand decline in October, the spot price is firm under the restricted sales background [67]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range shock. The supply and demand are both strong, but there is hedging pressure and a slight increase in the customer - supplied ratio next month [70][72]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Copper: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 79,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.25%, and the Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 10,887 lots to 466,700 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2]. - Alumina: The 2601 contract of alumina decreased by 57 yuan to 2,877 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions also declined [8]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 85 yuan to 20,685 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased by 70 yuan/ton [16]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The 2511 contract of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 60 yuan to 20,255 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained flat [25]. - Zinc: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 decreased by 0.68% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 10,195 lots to 250,300 lots. The spot market trading was not as good as the previous day [28][30]. - Lead: The Shanghai Lead 2511 decreased by 0.44% to 17,085 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead index reduced its position by 1,965 lots to 99,000 lots. The spot price of SMM1 lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton [33]. - Nickel: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 decreased by 720 to 120,910 yuan/ton, and the index increased its position by 4,391 lots. The premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [40]. - Stainless Steel: The main contract SS2511 of stainless steel decreased by 20 to 12,890 yuan/ton, and the index reduced its position by 4,758 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [47]. - Tin: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2510 closed at 269,880 yuan/ton, a decline of 1,480 yuan/ton or 0.55%, and the position decreased by 1,058 lots to 52,059 lots. The spot price of tin decreased, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly [53]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,925 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%. The spot price remained stable [60][61]. - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon futures increased its position and then decreased, and finally rebounded, closing at 50,260 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.745. The spot price remained stable [64]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate decreased by 120 to 73,660 yuan/ton, and the index reduced its position by 19,991 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 540 to 39,449 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [68]. Important Information - Copper: In August, China's copper concentrate imports increased, and the export of copper cables showed different performances in different regions. The copper mine supply was tight, and the production in some regions decreased [3][4]. - Alumina: There were transactions in the spot market, and the import and export volumes in August changed. The freight policy in Henan affected the inventory of downstream factories [9][10]. - Aluminum: There were diplomatic meetings, inventory changes, and information about the start - up of an overseas project. The import and export volumes of aluminum ingots in August also changed [17][18]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: A policy affected the recycled aluminum industry, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots changed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange started the standard warehouse receipt generation business for cast aluminum alloy [25]. - Zinc: The domestic refined zinc inventory changed, and the start - up rate of压铸 zinc alloy enterprises was affected by the typhoon [31]. - Lead: The import of lead concentrate increased, and the import and export of lead - acid batteries decreased [36]. - Nickel: There were some news about the mining company in Indonesia and the cobalt export policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [41]. - Stainless Steel: The import tariff affected the stainless steel market, and the import volume from Vietnam decreased. The apparent consumption of stainless steel in China increased [48]. - Tin: China's tin ore imports in August changed, and an Indonesian mining company planned to increase production. An American tin smelter started construction [54]. - Industrial Silicon: China's industrial silicon exports in August increased [62]. - Polysilicon: The national energy consumption data in August was released [65]. - Lithium Carbonate: There were news about the carbon emission trading market and the lithium production cooperation in Chile [69]. Logic Analysis - Copper: Macro factors, supply tightness, and weak terminal consumption led to short - term pressure on copper prices [4]. - Alumina: The domestic and international spot prices were falling in resonance, and the supply of bauxite was expected to increase, resulting in a weak fundamental trend [13]. - Aluminum: The Fed's attitude towards further interest rate cuts was cautious, and the domestic market needed to pay attention to downstream stocking before the holiday [19]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Enterprises stocked up in advance, and the start - up rate of die - casting factories increased, so the alloy ingot price was expected to be stable and slightly strong [26]. - Zinc: The supply of refined zinc in September might decrease slightly, but it was still at a relatively high level. The downstream replenishment was expected to be limited, and the overseas de - stocking might support zinc prices [32]. - Lead: The supply of lead ingots might increase, and downstream enterprises might stock up before the holiday, resulting in a combination of long and short factors [37]. - Nickel: Although demand was in the peak season, supply was growing faster, and the net import in September was expected to decline [42]. - Stainless Steel: Production increased in September, but demand did not show seasonal strength, and there was both supply pressure and cost support [49][51]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore was still tight, and demand was sluggish, but there were signs of short - term supply improvement [55]. - Industrial Silicon: The inventory structure was "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment had a greater impact on prices [63]. - Polysilicon: There was a short - term negative impact on the futures price, but the spot price was rising steadily, and it was recommended to buy after a sufficient correction [67]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply increase was limited in the short term, and demand was strong, but there was hedging pressure and a slight increase in the customer - supplied ratio next month [70][72]. Trading Strategies - Copper: Short - term short - selling for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market long - position arbitrage, and hold options [11]. - Alumina: Single - side trading, expect prices to run weakly [14]. - Aluminum: Single - side trading, expect prices to remain weak in the short term; hold for arbitrage and options [22][23]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Single - side trading, expect prices to run weakly following the aluminum price; hold for arbitrage and options [29]. - Zinc: Single - side trading, expect prices to fluctuate within a range; hold for arbitrage and options [32]. - Lead: Single - side trading, expect prices to fluctuate at a high level, and try short - selling at high prices; hold for arbitrage and options [38]. - Nickel: Single - side trading, expect wide - range shocks; hold for arbitrage and options [43][44][45]. - Stainless Steel: No specific trading strategy was mentioned in the report. - Tin: Single - side trading, expect high - level shocks [56]. - Industrial Silicon: Single - side trading, buy after the correction stabilizes; sell out - of - the - money put options; no arbitrage strategy [63]. - Polysilicon: Single - side trading, buy after a sufficient correction; conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; no option strategy [67]. - Lithium Carbonate: Single - side trading, expect wide - range shocks; hold for arbitrage; sell wide - straddle option combinations [73].