多晶硅：回调企稳后买入工业硅，短期多单参与，顺势而为

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For polysilicon: Buy after the price pullback stabilizes [1] - For industrial silicon: Participate in short - term long positions and follow the trend [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polysilicon's long - term price is likely to rise. Although there are short - term negative factors, the best strategy is to wait for the price to pull back and stabilize before taking long positions [4]. - For industrial silicon, due to its current inventory structure and the limited impact of price on supply, the production schedule adjustment in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price. The short - term strategy is to take long positions and follow the trend [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - Supply and demand: In September, the silicon wafer production schedule increased by 6GW to 58GW compared to August, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 116,000 tons. The overall polysilicon operating rate changed little, and the output is expected to remain around 130,000 tons. The current physical inventory of polysilicon is about 450,000 tons, with upstream inventory of about 200,000 tons and downstream raw material inventory of about 300,000 tons (including pre - purchases) [4]. - Price trend: In the long - term, the spot price of polysilicon is likely to rise. On September 19, there were rumors of factory复产 and cancellation of production cuts in October, which was a short - term negative for polysilicon futures. Currently, the spot price is rising steadily, and the 11 - contract is facing pressure from warrant cancellation, with short - term fluctuations [4]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Take long positions after a sufficient pullback; Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for contracts 2511 and 2512; Options: None [5]. Industrial Silicon - Supply and demand: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 48,600 tons, a 0.61% decrease; the weekly output of polysilicon was 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 57.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 55.5%, unchanged. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 94,700 tons, a 0.81% decrease. The number of open furnaces remained at 314. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 177,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the downstream raw material inventory was 221,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [6]. - Trading logic: The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. Except for leading large enterprises, the industrial silicon futures price of 8,500 - 10,000 has limited impact on supply. The production schedule adjustment of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price [6]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Take long positions; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options; Arbitrage: Close the reverse arbitrage positions of contracts 11 and 12 for profit [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Market review: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 9,305 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 100 - 250 yuan/ton [10]. - Downstream demand: The weekly output of DMC decreased, the output of polysilicon slightly increased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased. The weekly output of DMC was 48,600 tons, a 0.61% decrease; the weekly output of polysilicon was 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 57.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 55.5%, unchanged [13]. - Industrial silicon production: This week, the output of industrial silicon decreased. The weekly output was 94,700 tons, a 0.81% decrease. The number of open furnaces remained at 314. In the short term, the operating rate of industrial silicon in Yunnan and Sichuan is unlikely to be adjusted, and only leading large enterprises in Xinjiang may have adjustment plans [23]. - Inventory: The factory inventory, social inventory increased, and the downstream raw material inventory slightly decreased. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 177,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the downstream raw material inventory was 221,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [24]. - Related product prices: The spot price of industrial silicon strengthened. The prices of organic silicon - related products, such as DMC and terminal products, decreased slightly. The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates decreased slightly, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased slightly. The price of Xinjiang refined coal increased [29][33][45]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Price trend: This week, the spot price of polysilicon strengthened. The price of N - type re -投料 was 50.3 - 55 yuan/kg, the price of N - type dense material was 49.3 - 53 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 49 - 50 yuan/kg. The price of rod - shaped silicon and granular silicon increased by 1,000 yuan/ton compared to last week [50][58]. - Silicon wafer and battery prices: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries strengthened. The price of N - type silicon wafers - 183mm rose to 1.35 yuan/piece, the price of N - type silicon wafers - 210R rose to 1.4 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type silicon wafers - 210mm rose to 1.69 yuan/piece. The price of N - type topcon183 battery was 0.315 yuan/W, and the price of 210R battery was 0.305 yuan/W, both increasing by 0.005 yuan/W compared to last week [64]. - Component prices: This week, the domestic photovoltaic component prices fluctuated. The price of Topcon components - 182mm (distributed) was 0.670 - 0.686 yuan/W, the price of Topcon components - 210mm (distributed) was 0.675 - 0.690 yuan/W, and the price of Topcon components - 210R (distributed) was 0.689 - 0.705 yuan/W. In the centralized project, the price of 182 components was 0.658 - 0.675 yuan/W, and the price of 210 components was 0.673 - 0.690 yuan/W [65]. - Component fundamentals: Currently, the domestic orders for components are average, and the inventory is moderately high. The component production schedule in September increased slightly to 46GW compared to August. In October, many component enterprises plan to reduce production and have holidays, and the production schedule is expected to decrease [80]. - Battery fundamentals: The export demand for batteries is good. The inventory of specialized battery manufacturers is 5.94GW, which is moderate. With the increase in the component production schedule in September, the battery production schedule increased to 57GW [81]. - Silicon wafer fundamentals: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises increased, and the weekly output increased to 13.92GW. The silicon wafer inventory is 16.87GW. The silicon wafer output in September was 58GW, an increase of 6GW compared to August [86]. - Polysilicon fundamentals: This week, the polysilicon output slightly increased, and the factory inventory slightly increased to 234,200 tons. After the production capacity of an enterprise in Xinjiang's Ningxia project was put into operation in September, the output increased by 2,000 tons. An enterprise in Qinghai was under maintenance, and the Inner Mongolia production capacity of an enterprise in Sichuan may have rotational maintenance. The polysilicon output in September is expected to be flat compared to August, at around 130,000 tons [91].