铝产业链风险管理报告

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction in the alumina market lies in the conflict between the tight supply of domestic bauxite, low shipments from Guinea, and the high absolute level of bauxite inventory. The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the marginal demand in the peak season has improved, but the probability of a lackluster peak season is high. After a short - term price correction, the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, with inventory being the key focus [3]. - In the case of cast aluminum alloy, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors on the fundamental side. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the registration of standard warehouse receipts [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 2877 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 2850 - 3100 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.78%, and a historical percentile of 10.14% over 3 years [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20685 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.45%, and a historical percentile of 18.82% over 3 years [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 20280 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19900 - 20800 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 5.96%, and a historical percentile of 30.26% over 3 years [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - Alumina - Inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the alumina main futures contract at 3200 yuan/ton. - Raw material management: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the alumina main futures contract at 2850 yuan/ton [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum - Inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell 90% of the Shanghai Aluminum main futures contract at 21300 yuan/ton. - Raw material management: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Aluminum main futures contract at 20500 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum alloy - Inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell 80% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 20700 yuan/ton. - Raw material management: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 19900 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Alumina: The core contradiction in the bauxite market is the conflict between tight domestic supply, low Guinea shipments, and high inventory levels. The main factor affecting alumina prices is supply surplus, and the surplus state is expected to continue [2]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The marginal demand in the peak season has improved, but the probability of a lackluster peak season is high. The price is affected by factors such as inventory and downstream purchasing sentiment, and is expected to remain volatile at a high level [3]. - Cast aluminum alloy: The market is influenced by both positive and negative factors on the fundamental side. On one hand, raw material prices provide cost support, and pre - holiday restocking demand is positive; on the other hand, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [6]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data - Price: The prices of various aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy contracts have shown different degrees of change, such as a - 0.29% daily decline in the Shanghai Aluminum main contract to 20685 yuan/ton [1][7]. - Spread: The spreads between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy have also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai Aluminum continuous and consecutive contracts has shown significant fluctuations [13]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Aluminum: The total Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipts are 68960 tons, a decrease of 2.55%. The total LME aluminum inventory is 513850 tons, a decrease of 0.01% [29]. - Alumina: The total warehouse receipts for alumina in warehouses are 151006 tons, a decrease of 0.79% [29].