Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market uncertainty for copper remains high, with pre - holiday stocking leading to price fluctuations. Aluminum and alumina show that the market is in a state of over - supply, and the performance of apparent consumption is not as expected. Zinc is suggested to be short - sold on rebounds. Lead shows signs of a phased improvement in fundamentals but faces pressure from imported ingots. Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak trend. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and a "high - selling and low - buying" trading style is recommended. Lithium carbonate is in a state of price oscillation under the influence of various factors. Industrial silicon has an over - supply situation, and polysilicon may face callback pressure [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - Market sentiment: The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut and the situation of precious metals. There is a large price fluctuation, and the market focuses on economic indicators. The overall uncertainty is high [1]. - Domestic situation: Spot prices are stable. Although the peak - season signal is not obvious, the market enters the pre - holiday stocking period. The inventory has a small outflow, and production has decreased month - on - month. The scrap - copper enterprises are reluctant to sell, and the market pays attention to imports [1]. - Overseas situation: Some mines have production problems, affecting the supply [1]. - Trend: There is a certain boost from pre - holiday stocking, but attention should be paid to consumption indicators. It is recommended to stop losses on previous long positions and then wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The operating capacity has increased, the market is in an over - supply state, and the profit still has room for compression. The support level is around 2,600 yuan [1]. - Supply: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, with mainly capacity replacement [1]. - Demand: The downstream processing enterprises' operating rate has a small change, and the export situation is different for different products. After the implementation of counter - tariffs, exports remain rigid [1]. - Inventory and spot: The aluminum ingot social inventory has increased slightly, and the aluminum rod social inventory has decreased. The spot discount has narrowed, and the processing fee has risen [1]. - Trend: The downstream is in the seasonal peak, but the inventory has not shown a turning point. The apparent consumption is lower than expected. The support level of Shanghai aluminum is 20,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking effect [1]. Zinc - Market: After the Fed's short - term interest - rate cut, the price has fallen. The internal and external price differences have changed, and the import ore price is not good [1]. - Supply: The LME inventory is low, and the domestic smelter inventory is being repaired. The supply is expected to decrease month - on - month, and the social inventory has decreased [1]. - Consumption: It is still the off - peak season in the peak season. Although the downstream has increased low - price purchases during the National Day holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1]. - Trend: Both the internal and external zinc ingot inventories are decreasing. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is recommended to take the opportunity of the pre - holiday rebound to short - sell [1]. Lead - Market: The LME lead is in a low - level consolidation, and the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and an increase in positions [1]. - Supply: The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic primary lead supply is restricted by raw materials. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low. Imported ingots are arriving in China, restricting the upward space [1]. - Consumption: The terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved. The inventories of smelters have decreased [1]. - Trend: The fundamentals are improving, but the imported ingot supply is expected to be strong. The upper pressure level is 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market: The Shanghai nickel is in a low - level shock, and the stainless steel has a slight rebound. The trading activity is low [1]. - Macro and demand: After the interest - rate cut, the long - position holders tend to cash out. The downstream is cautious, and the high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging. The cost support is obvious [1]. - Supply and inventory: The premiums of different products are different. The nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased [1]. - Trend: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is in a weak trend and is about to start a downward trend [1]. Tin - Market: The internal and external prices have encountered resistance and declined, and the LME squeeze - out situation has basically ended [1]. - Supply: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and overseas raw materials is tight [1]. - Consumption: After the price has dropped to the support level, there is a demand for low - price purchases. The inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1]. - Trend: After the reduction of the internal and external position risks, the market focus turns to the domestic market. It is difficult for the price to show a trend. A "high - selling and low - buying" trading style is recommended [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The futures price has oscillated and rebounded, and the market speculation has declined. The difference between long and short positions has decreased [1]. - Supply and demand: The traditional car sales season has driven the growth of material factory orders. The overall industry demand is strong. The total market inventory has decreased, and the smelter inventory has decreased while the downstream inventory has increased [1]. - Trend: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling actions are basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is under pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - Price: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have shown different trends. The price of industrial silicon has broken through 9,000 yuan/ton due to cost support [1]. - Supply and demand: The production is expected to increase from September to October. The demand side has different situations for different industries. The overall supply is expected to be in an over - supply situation [1]. - Inventory: The social inventory has increased, including the increase in ordinary inventory and delivery inventory [1]. - Trend: The price is affected by the upward cost of coal and the expectation of eliminating backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - Price: The futures price has oscillated in a range and shown a downward trend. The market sentiment has cooled down. The spot price has a slight upward adjustment [1]. - Supply and demand: The output of leading enterprises may decline in October, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production, while the component price continues to oscillate [1]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory is unevenly distributed, and the total inventory has decreased [1]. - Trend: The elimination of excess capacity is gradually advancing. The market sentiment has a weakened boosting effect. The futures price may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1]. Recommended Strategy - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100. The reasons are the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1].
国投期货有色全属周度观点-20250923
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-23 12:00