Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak domestic demand and cautious market sentiment [2] - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level with support from high hot metal production and limited inventory build - up pressure [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4][6] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices show good performance with upward - repaired valuations, and it is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [7][8] Summary by Industry Steel - The futures market declined today. Thread apparent demand recovered, production continued to fall, and inventory decreased slightly. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production continued to rise, and inventory accumulated again. High hot metal production eased the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain, but poor profit per ton restricted further production resumption. Domestic demand was weak overall, and steel exports remained high. With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the market was cautious, and the bearish demand outlook restricted the upside of the futures market [2] Iron Ore - The futures market declined today. Global shipments fell from a high level, slightly stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals rebounded to a relatively high level this year, and port inventory decreased last week with no significant short - term inventory build - up pressure. Domestic terminal demand was weak, steel mills had slight profits and low willingness to cut production actively. High hot metal production last week continued to support iron ore demand. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased significantly, and there was still some pre - festival replenishment demand. Market speculation cooled down. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price oscillated during the day. The first round of coking price increases was partially implemented. Coke production decreased slightly. Overall coke inventory increased. With the rise in futures prices, traders' purchasing willingness improved. Sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment supported prices. The futures market was at a slight premium. It is recommended to buy on dips [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated during the day. Mongolian coal customs clearance suspended during the National Day holiday and will resume on October 8. Coking coal mine production increased slightly. Pre - National Day replenishment sentiment was strong, spot auction transactions increased, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory increased, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The resumption of production in coking coal mines was basically completed, and it was less likely to significantly increase production capacity under the over - production inspection. Sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment supported prices. The futures market was at a premium. It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated during the day. Hot metal production continued to rise above 2.41 million tons. Weekly silicon manganese production continued to increase, and inventory did not accumulate. Spot and futures demand was good. Manganese ore forward quotes rose slightly, and spot ore was boosted. Manganese ore inventory increased slowly. The price valuation was upward - repaired, and the performance during the day was good. It is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [7] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated during the day. Hot metal production continued to rise above 2.41 million tons. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons with a marginal impact. Magnesium metal production decreased slightly, and secondary demand declined marginally. Overall demand was okay. Ferrosilicon supply recovered to a high level, spot and futures market demand was good, and inventory decreased slightly. The price valuation was upward - repaired, and the performance during the day was good. It is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [8]
黑色金属日报-20250923
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-23 12:02