全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第161期)-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - CEA prices continue to decline, and market activity has significantly decreased [4] - It is recommended that companies with a carbon quota gap make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [5] - The depletion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, and signs of a reversal may appear in Q3 [5] - From September, carbon prices may be under pressure as key emitters release their mandatory circulation allowances. By the end of October, as compliance pressure mounts and the release of allowances nears completion, carbon prices may start to rise [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: Prices are falling. There are 19.3 tons available for listing and 10.0 tons for bulk trading. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 65.00 yuan/ton, 61.50 yuan/ton, 60.91 yuan/ton, 54.55 yuan/ton, and 55.12 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter two showing declines of -1.71% and -0.68%. The total trading volume of CEA23 is 4.96 tons, and that of CEA24 is 24.36 tons [5][7] - CCER: The volume of listed agreement transactions is 2.93 tons, with an average transaction price of 78.14 yuan/ton, a 2.80% increase. The transaction amount is 228.94 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 298.55 million tons [5][9] Strategies - It is advised that companies with a carbon quota gap make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [5] - The depletion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, and signs of a reversal may appear in Q3 [5] Core Logic - From September, as key emitters gradually formulate trading plans based on their approved allowances, the accelerated release of mandatory circulation allowances may put pressure on carbon prices [6] - By the end of October, as compliance pressure mounts and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears completion, the upward momentum may accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [6]